The Hindu Business Line : Cyclone alert for AP coast

Thiruvananthapuram June 21 The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) of the US Navy has put the Bay of Bengal under tropical cyclone formation alert even as India Meteorological Department elevated Wednesday's well marked `low' as a depression status on Thursday.

The JTWC depicted the event unfolding along 15.7 deg N latitude and 85.2 deg E longitude in the sea (east-southeast of Andhra coast).

An IMD update said the depression over west-central Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestward and lay centred at about 300 km east-southeast of Kakinada.

The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast between Narsapur and Visakhapatnam by Friday morning. But the IMD did not clarify whether the system would be declared a cyclone.

According to the JTWC, formation of a tropical cyclone was possible within 120 nautical miles (220 km) on either side of the area of the depression. Winds in the area were estimated to be 27-32 knots (50-60 km/hr). At 34 knots, the system will be declared a tropical cyclone.

The JTWC said that the area of convection about 160 nautical miles (295 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam had persisted over the past 12 hours. Recent satellite imagery signalled deep convection developing over a well-defined low-level circulation centre (which drives cyclone development).

Wind shear values were decreasing while the system enjoyed favourable upper-level divergence (ventilation). Minimum sea-level pressure at the centre of the system was estimated to be near 998 millibars. This is forecast to reduce further, raising the speed of winds blowing into centre, thus strengthening the system.

Based on decreasing vertical wind shear and flaring deep convection near the LLCC, the JTWC upgraded as good the potential for the development of a tropical cyclone.

RAIN ALERT

An IMD forecast said widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamil Nadu (including Chennai) and Puducherry during the next 36 hours. Isolated extremely heavy falls of more than 25 cm are also likely over central districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the same period.

Squally winds with speeds reaching 50-60 km/hour are likely along and off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts during the next 24 hours. Sea condition will be very rough. Fishermen of Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu/Puducherry coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

Subsequently, with the likely west-northwestward movement of the system, the enhanced rainfall belt is likely to shift to Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, south Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and southeast Rajasthan during four days from Saturday.

Southwest monsoon is likely to advance further into remaining parts of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, entire Gujarat and parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan during the next four to five days

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