The Hindu Business Line : Fresh `low' brewing as tropical storm crosses coast

Thiruvananthapuram June 22 Thursday's depression in the west-central Bay of Bengal intensified overnight to become `03B', a numbered tropical storm or a minimal tropical cyclone without name (deep depression in India Meteorological Department parlance), and crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast near Kakinada on Friday morning.

The storm, which dragged flooding rain into the mainland, lay centred over coastal Andhra Pradesh as a depression and is predicted to move very slowly to the west-northwest. It will preside over an extremely wet session over the entire peninsula for days together prior to soaking Mumbai and south Gujarat in a splatter early next week.

Another `low'

Meanwhile, the IMD has kept a watch for another `low' brewing in the Head Bay early next week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) bets that this system would rapidly undergo transformation to become another tropical cyclone - a powerful one at that.

This `low' is seen materialising as a remnant of `03B' strays to its immediate east. Back-to-back tropical cyclones will only go to prove the strength of the basic monsoon current evidenced earlier in the rapid consolidation soon after super cyclone Gonu strolled the Arabian Sea.

In fact, this would-be tropical cyclone (to be called `Yemyin' as per the naming protocol) will prevail even as `03B' batters the Konkan-Gujarat region. The monsoon flows would then be directed into this system, which is shown to be travelling in the west-northwest direction into the farming heartland of India.

MTC IN MAKING?

According to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Advisor, Department of Science and Technology, `03B' might just go to set up a mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation (MTC) over the Gujarat region. An MTC has a much more longer shelf life than a monsoon depression, which is saying much.

Gujarat and the northeast Arabian Sea combine to provide a favourite backdrop for MTCs to develop. The MTC and a prevailing `low'/depression in the Bay (a likely cyclone, in this case) feed into each other, getting intensely active to produce a hectic spell all over central India and the immediate northwest.

DYNAMIC ENSEMBLE

Once it drops anchor, an MTC stays for much longer than a low/depression and guarantees sustained rainfall in areas falling within its direct footprint. The offshore trough running from Gujarat to north Kerala would complete the ensemble.

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com says that `03B' will certainly remain an organised `low' as it treks over northern Andhra Pradesh to Maharashtra. Saturday would be the most likely time for it to reach the Maharashtra shore. It will leave heavy to excessive rains along its direct path with scattered torrential rains away from its path.

Through Saturday, extreme rainfall (30-50 cm) will be possible between the shore and the crest of the Western Ghats as `03B' prepares to hop into the Arabian Sea. This would be akin to the pattern set by last year's series of depressions that cut across upper peninsular India in much the same way.

RAINS FOR THAR?

`03B' could travel across Gujarat into Sindh, Pakistan. The torrential rains that created lakes in the Thar Desert last year could be replicated if the well-marked depression drives inland and northward from the coast of Gujarat.

An IMD forecast said that conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon into remaining parts of Maharashtra, entire Gujarat and some parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan during the next 72 hours.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls amounting to 25 cm or more are likely at a few places over Telangana, coastal and north interior Karnataka during the next 24 hours. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely over Konkan, Goa, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka

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