The Hindu Business Line : No ‘break monsoon’ seen as fresh system forms in Bay

Thiruvananthapuram, July 3 A fresh low-pressure area has formed over land and water around the Head Bay (northeast Bay of Bengal) on Tuesday beating forecasts once again, and is showing signs of intensification prior to heading north-northwest inland.

The system is expected to trigger widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Gangetic West Bengal during the next three days, a forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Rains will also extend into north Orissa and Jharkhand.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) predictions favour a scenario where the southwest monsoon does not head for a customary ‘break’ phase, though getting somewhat weakened by systems forming concurrently in the West Pacific.

BREAK MONSOON

‘Break monsoon’ comes about when monsoon takes a pause after frenetic activity, leaving the system active only in the northeastern and extreme south-eastern parts of the country. It revives with the formation of the next system in the Bay.

In the instant case, the break does not happen, but the flows are projected to sustain by making their presence prominently felt in the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal by mid-July. This is part of the larger monsoon flows feeding the Pacific system, but could still throw up a ‘low’ to the north.

In the near term, however, the ECMWF is predicting another round of wet session for the west coast and large parts of the peninsula from Friday/Saturday as the new ‘low’ in the Head Bay eclipses the ‘04B’ (erstwhile deep depression) remnant in the west. The strong flows could even spawn helpful circulations over the peninsula and Sri Lanka.

GUJARAT DOWNPOUR

Meanwhile, in the west, Monday’s ‘low’ (‘04B’ remnant) over southeast Rajasthan and adjoining west Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat region has shifted to south Rajasthan and neighbourhood. It will continue to bring widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated heavy falls over Gujarat.

The marshy expanse of the Rann of Kutch and the flooded terrain are proving a perfect foil for the torrential downpour to keep going. Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com has observed that the ‘low’ has greatly slowed its westward drift and packs some powerful, inundating thunderstorms. The orographic uplift of the Ghats has helped to keep heavy cloud and rain hanging over adjoining western Maharashtra as well.

The Joint Typhoon warning Centre (JTWC) of the US Navy said that ‘04B’ remnant featured convergence associated with strong southwesterly flows.

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