The Hindu Business Line : Rain belt shifts to signal weak monsoon phase

Thiruvananthapuram, July 11 Active rain belt is shifting to the Himalayan foothills in the east even as the existing low-pressure area over southeast Rajasthan and neighbourhood became less marked on Wednesday.

Model predictions suggest that fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over northeast India, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar during the next three days. Rain-ravaged central India and plains of northwest India will enjoy some respite in this manner.

WEAKENED ‘LOW’

The Himalayan foothills may receive enhanced rain over the next four days starting Thursday. Retreat of the rain belt to the foothills and peninsular east are normally associated with the weakening phase of the monsoon. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reiterated its outlook for a ‘low’ in North Bay of Bengal by Saturday but the system may just fail to measure up to the strength of immediate predecessors.

A strong Pacific typhoon, named Man-Yi, accounts for the most of the monsoon flows converging in a stream across the south Bay, en route to the west Pacific. Man-Yi is heading for a landfall over mainland Japan by Saturday, subsequent to which the flows over the Bay and the Arabian Sea would weaken, as is being predicted by various international models.

SHEAR EFFECT

The brewing ‘low’ in the Bay will still be able to trigger widespread rainfall over Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal for three days from Saturday, the IMD said. Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Advisor to the Department of Science and Technology, said he would wait-and-watch since the vertical wind shear (that inhibits storm development) in the area was becoming too prominent to ignore.

International models are suggesting a weakening of the flows over the peninsular seas, but Dr Gupta said this pertained to a timeframe (five to seven days) beyond the range of domestic models. In the short-term, however, Man-Yi threatens to suck out whatever moisture is available over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com also agreed that the next few days are seen lacking in any big, defining weather feature over the Indian landmass.

This will simply be a stretch of ordinary monsoon weather for the subcontinent as a whole.

The cyclonic whirl in the west could still stir up a few cloudbursts over Gujarat.

The ‘low’ over southeast Rajasthan and neighbourhood may have become less marked but associated cyclonic circulations lay over central Rajasthan and neighbourhood. Fairly widespread rainfalls with isolated heavy fall are likely over south Rajasthan and Gujarat during the next 24 hours.

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