The Hindu Business Line : Bangladesh on the brink

With the army brass in sync with the interim dispensation in Dhaka, there is fear that military rule will reappear. This does not portend well for India.

Rasheeda Bhagat

Almost all of South Asia is in ferment. The ethnic problem in Sri Lanka and the violence unleashed by the Tamil Tigers are worsening. Pakistan continues to remain on the brink; the Lal Masjid episode has raised serious questions about Pakistan’s ability to curb fanaticism and the growth of a radical Islam that is trying to force itself on the entire community.

Closer home, much hue and cry has been raised over the alleged involvement of Bangalore brothers in the attempt to bomb the Glasgow airport but, surely, one Kafeel Ahmed going insane and his brother perhaps withholding this information, cannot be an indictment of the entire 140/150-million-strong Indian Muslim community.

House Arrest, then jail

But really worrisome is what is happening in Bangladesh, with the army working in tandem with the interim administration. Six months into the emergency that was declared after widespread rioting resulted in the cancellation of the January general elections, the present dispensation, backed by the armed forces, has begun a crackdown on the country’s top politicians. After much fanfare, and an attempt to send her into exile, former Prime Minister and Awami League chief Sheikh Hasina was allowed to return home in May. But the euphoria that accompanied her return, with supporters cheering her all the way from the airport to her Dhaka house, did not last too long as she was placed virtually under house arrest.

In June, when she tried to leave for the US to visit her pregnant daughter, she was not allowed to reach the airport. Meanwhile, several extortion cases were filed against her. And what she had thought was her triumph in coming back home turned into a nightmare with her arrest based on one such case. In the early hours of Monday she was picked up from her residence on the charge of extortion; she is accused of demanding a bribe from a local businessmen during her premiership between 1996 and 2001. This extortion case was filed a month ago. She was produced in court, denied bail and has been sent to jail.

Her bete noir and the more recent Prime Minister, Begum Khalida Zia, has been slapped tax notices and there is expectation that she too might be arrested soon. The manner in which the hearing of Sheikh Hasina’s case was conduc ted led to her lawyers asking whether the country was only under an emergency or under “military rule”.

Corruption in high places

, Though fed up with the politicians who have only feathered their nests while the nation has remained poor and underdeveloped, the civil society in Dhaka and elsewhereis not really rejoicing at the present state of affairs. Many believe that Sheikh Hasina is being made to pay for asking too many questions of the military-backed dispensation. For instance, she criticised the decision to hold elections before 2008 end, saying that this was too long a period for the country to be without a democratically-elected government.

And then last week, according to a BBC report, she went and did what is considered “undoable” in Bangladesh: She “publicly accused the Defence intelligence agency, the DGFI, of meddling in politics… arresting and torturing politicians and engaging in efforts to make or break political parties.” She added: “It is not the DGFI’s business to get involved in politics, to make or break political parties. What kind of intelligence activity is it, when the agency tortures people, and administers electric shocks?”

The Regime

The present regime is led by a former banker, Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed, with Lt. Gen. Hasan Mashhud Chowdhury, a former army chief, as head of the Anti-Corruption Commission. He has vowed to bring to book all “corrupt politicians”, a statement that would raise cheer in any country, particularly one riddled with so much corruption such as Bangladesh. But the problem is that under emergency, all political activity is banned and basic rights remain suspended. Also, when Sheikh Hasina, who must have been anticipating arrest and incarceration for some time now, openly accused the DGFI of meddling in politics, she has reminded Bangladeshis about Pakistan’s dreaded ISI (Inter Services Intelligence) and the crucial role it plays in Pakistan even today.

Also, till now in interactions with Bangladeshi academicians, politicians and NGOs, one had always been told that the army will no longer be able to stage coups and overthrow governments, as in the past. Within four years of independence, in August 1975, a military coup was staged and the ‘Father of the Nation’, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, was killed. His family, including daughter Sheikh Hasina, escaped as they were then in Germany. Another coup followed in November, and then there were a succession of them between 1977 and 1980.

According to Wikepedia: “General Ziaur Rahman survived as many as 21 coups during his five years until succumbing to the 22nd one. Most of those coups were led by the 1971 freedom-fighter officers who were irked by Zia’s liaison with anti-liberation, pro-Islamic quarters. He strongly carried on oppression of rebel officers, and by the time he was assassinated in 1981 most freedom-fighters in Bangladesh army were executed or sacked.” The 22nd coup happened in April 1981 when Gen Ziaur Rahman was assassinated.

But in recent times Bangladeshis had become confident that they had firmly put military coups behind them. ‘We know the army is watching our politicians, but it will never cross the line and grab power,’ was the unanimous view, as recently as November 2006, when one visited Dhaka. Even then there was an atmosphere of unrest with Sheikh Hasina constantly questioning the acts of the caretaker government, which she accused of being full of Begum Khaleda’s supporters.

But one doesn’t know how many of these people continue to believe in their earlier conviction. With the army brass being in sync with the present dispensation, surely there is fear that the already thin dividing line between a state of emergency and military rule might disappear, and Bangladesh come under yet another spell of military rule. As has happened so often in Pakistan, where even today it is Gen Pervez Musharraf’s writ that runs, rather than that of the elected legislators or ministers in the Federal and provincial governments.

India’s Anxiety

If military rule is only round the corner, New Delhi’s anxiety, which has already been conveyed to Bangladesh, is understandable. India already faces a huge problem of infiltration from Bangladesh, not to mention acts of terror being planned or abetted by Bangladeshis. Add to that yet another army coup and the likely violent response from politicians and their cronies in the criminal world; this is certainly not good news for India. Any kind of trouble brewing in the sub-continent is bound to have repercussions on India, and at a time when the Indian economy is chugging along at 9 per cent growth, the capital market is buoyant and India Inc is raking in profits and making acquisitions aplenty, the instability in the region could impact us negatively.

And with all kinds of outfits in the post-Iraq war fishing in troubled waters, if things turn ugly in Bangladesh, India might inevitably, and unnecessarily, get drawn in. And this is the last thing that we need at this moment, or for that matter, ever.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in