The Hindu Business Line : Change in subcontinent?

Certainly not New Delhi, but perhaps both Dhaka and Islamabad are in the throes of change — which may strengthen the cause of peace and stability in the region or, as in the past, continue to buttress a system where both Bangladesh and Pakistan see in India as a Big Brother who is unwanted and unacceptable.

In Pakistan, the Lal Masjid events will in all likelihood see the hold of the Pakistan military over the body politic of the Pakistani state weakened. In fact, it can be argued that the storming of the mosque by the Pakistani armed forces was waiting to happen, marking the maturing of a trend in Pakistani society which has been in the works ever since the World Trade Centre in New York was destroyed by al-Qaeda operatives.

Terror under control

True, Gen Pervez Musharraf has been giving the impression that terrorists and terrorism were under control in his country, and that there was nothing to fear from this source as far as stability of the Pakistani state is concerned. The General has no choice but to adopt such a stand because dictators, for their survival, must necessarily always give the impression that everything is under control. But, as history has shown repeatedly, no human being can stem the inexorable tide of historical forces which are dependent on so many factors beyond the control of Man, leave alone any single individual.

Gen Musharraf’s time, therefore, has run out. But this is not half as important as what is going to come after him. The critical issue is whether the Pakistani military will be able to present a united face to the country and its politicians after he goes, especially in view of the fact that the Lal Masjid events (something like this has never happened before) are sure to have incensed the religious fanatical elements within the military itself.

Cleansing Public Life

The problem in Dhaka is different in that the Bangladesh military has till now backed a society-cleansing effort undertaken by the interim government, which relies fully on the support it derives from the armed forces. So far, the steps taken by the regime have been nothing short of laudable, particularly the efforts being made to root out corruption in the country’s administration and among politicians. The heartening fact is that, as far as one can make out, hardly anyone is being spared, beginning with the two leading politicians of the day, Sheikh Hasina Wajed and Begum Khaleda Zia.

Elections in Bangladesh are now scheduled for end-2008, which leaves some more time for the purge undertaken by the Dhaka regime to continue. But, of course, the stated objective of the drive — to clean Bangladesh society of the forces of corruption and mis-government — will not be attained because such changes in any society take years to mature and bear fruit, which is not what is happening in Dhaka right now.

A period of intense political unrest is likely to follow in Bangladesh, with perhaps the military, once again, taking over the reins of State power.

New Delhi, therefore, should gear itself up to face these changes, which will probably be set in motion before the next Lok Sabha elections in 2009. If only one had a crystal ball to peer into now, which would, however, make life so predictable and unexciting.

RANABIR RAY CHOUDHURY

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