The Hindu Business Line : Grains output estimated at record 216.13 m tonnes

According to the fourth ‘advance estimates’ released by the Union Agriculture Ministry here on Thursday, total foodgrain output in 2006-07 has been placed at 216.13 million tonnes (mt), surpassing not only the 211.78 mt ‘third advance estimates’ of April 4, but also the previous record of 213.19 mt set during 2003-04.

Production of wheat is now assessed at 74.89 mt (up from the third advance estimate of 73.70 mt), with those for rice (92.76 mt against 91.05 mt), coarse cereals (34.25 mt against 32.92 mt) and pulses (14.23 mt versus 14.11 mt) also being revised upwards.

In the case of wheat, the earlier estimate of 73.70 mt had assumed total acreage of 28.17 million hectares and an average yield per hectare of 2,617 kg.

Estimate base

“We have now taken acreage at 280.35 lakh hectares and yield of 2,671 kg per hectare.

These estimates are more reliable as they are based on Crop Cutting Experiments, which generate authentic micro-level data on yields,” the Secretary, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Mr P.K. Mishra, told presspersons.

The latest 74.89 mt estimate for 2006-07 marks the country’s second-best wheat harvest since the 76.37 mt crop of 1999-2000.

The most impressive performance, however, has been for cotton and sugarcane.

Cotton output in 2006-07 is estimated at a record 22.70 million bales (of 170 kg each), consolidating on the gains since the introduction of Bt hybrids in 2002.

In the pre-Bt period, production hovered around the 10-12 million bale range, which only shows the real impact of technology on cotton similar to what the Green Revolution semi-dwarf varieties did to wheat and rice in the 1970s and 1980s.

Sugarcane up again

For sugarcane, the Agriculture Ministry has further revised upwards its estimate of production to 345.31 mt — compared with 322.94 mt, 315.53 mt and 283.40 mt in the previous third, second and first advance estimates, respectively.

This massive 62 mt revision has, in a way, been damaging to the sugar industry, which was subjected to a prolonged export ban on the basis of the initial low estimate.

Mr Mishra, however, refused to admit that the significant underestimation of the cane crop raised concerns over functioning of the official statistical machinery.

Among oilseeds, soyabean output scaled a new record of 8.86 mt in 2006-07. In the last two years, soyabean has edged out rapeseed-mustard and groundnut to emerge as the country’s No. 1 oilseed.