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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, July 20 Rainfall surplus for the country as a whole stands further depleted to 11 per cent as on July 18 with the weak monsoon phase restricting precipitation to the east/northeast and southwest of the country.

An update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the progressive drying up of the landmass from mid-July has, till date, emptied nine percentage points from the 20 per cent surplus recorded on July 4But the expectation is that the eastern parts would continue to benefit from the ongoing rainfall thanks to the typical alignment of the monsoon trough during a weak monsoon phase. Significantly, the extent of deficit recorded does not go beyond the 30-per-cent mark.

Meanwhile, a weekly tropical climate note issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on July 17 said that the equatorial Indian Ocean and Indian monsoon areas will be in an ‘inactive MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) phase’, meaning a weak monsoon phase, during this week and the next (until July 31).

The MJO is a large-scale eastward movement of air in the upper troposphere with a period of about 20-70 days, over tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The active phase of MJO presides over the intensity and breaking of monsoon rainfall. Enhanced convection had been noticed in the north western Pacific during the past few weeks mainly due to Typhoon Man-Yi, the BoM said.

According to Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com, there is some evidence for a weak circulation over land around the Head Bay of Bengal where numerical forecast models predict a moderate ‘low’ to form by Saturday. It is seen being dragged to the west over the following few days.

Unlike earlier lows, this smaller, weaker low is shown not to have the belt of greatly accelerated monsoon winds to its south.

Western India may not get a slug of torrential rain, although local excessive rainfall is to be expected along whatever path the intact low takes.

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Rainfall surplus gets further trimmed

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