The Hindu Business Line : US stakes in nuclear deal

There has been a lot of curiosity on the part of Indian intelligentsia over the reasons for the US being so very persevering in its efforts to conclude the nuclear deal with India. It was clear from the start that a predominant part of the motive power for the deal came from the side of the US. For over two years, the US had been tirelessly striving to keep India on course, by employing all known techniques to prod and pressure its political establishment.

Whenever the negotiations showed signs of sagging or hitting roadblocks, the President, Mr George Bush, the Vice-President, Mr Dick Cheney, and the Secretary of State, Ms Condoleezza Rice, did not hesitate to give them a push, by talking to the highest levels in Government or by tempering India’s opposition to the thornier aspects of the deal. Indeed, it often looked as if it was the US, and not India, which was in desperate need of the agreement.

One reason suggested is that Mr Bush, having developed a great admiration for India, and been deeply impressed by Dr Manmohan Singh, both as the Prime Minister and as a person, wanted to put US-India strategic partnership on a firm footing as a legacy of his presidency and regarded the deal as the kingpin of that partnership. Whatever the pros and cons expressed in India and the US on the deal, Mr Bush himself had no doubt that it was the best thing to happen as a means of strengthening the bonds of the US with India.

However, there are in both countries those holding that this was not all there was to the US’ impatience. To them, it was not just a case of altruism driving the US. The US believed that it would be easier to achieve its larger global goals by riding on the respectability resulting from its association with India, which enjoyed a great measure of credibility thanks to its record of achievements while still maintaining its democratic framework intact.

Mouth-watering prospects

The most attractive part of the agreement must undoubtedly have been the phenomenal commercial gains that are projected to accrue to US suppliers of nuclear equipment and technology. The tacit alliance between the US Administration and powerful business interests had been in evidence from the time Mr Bush and Mr Cheney took over the reins in 2000, and nowhere more than in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is only natural for US business to be raring to exploit the vistas opened up by the nuclear deal.

An article, Power Plays: Business Implications of the Indo-US Nuclear Deal, published on August 9, 2007 in the Web site of Knowledge@Wharton gives an idea of the overwhelming scale and dimension of the stakes. Apa rt from the $14 billion worth of orders expected to be shared by Areva, the world’s largest maker of nuclear power stations, General Electric, Toshiba’s Westinghouse Electric and Russia’s atomic energy agency Rosatom, sales of nuclear reactors and technology will come to more than $150 billion in the next 20 years on the basis of the nuclear power component of the total installed capacity touching 40,000 MW by 2025 from around 3300 MW as of now.

The end to India’s isolation following the deal is also expected to result in more than $70 billion of Defence purchases from abroad in the next five years. In addition, there is the expectation of increase in the flow of business on space-related projects such as satellite fabrication and space launches, although it is hard to put a finger on the exact amount involved.

With such mouth-watering prospects, the US cannot be blamed for looking upon the nuclear deal as a sure-fire recipe for bolstering its power-base and its economy.

B. S. RAGHAVAN

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