The Hindu Business Line : AP, Orissa to get more showers

The low-pressure area brewing in the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal by Sunday is seen as being `poorly endowed' that its foray into central India could be limited.

Instead, the system is likely to wax and wane along the coast for sometime even while pumping rain into Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Orissa, as per projections by various weather models. Lack of system strength might also mean that the southward shift of the monsoon trough may not materialise fully, with the bias towards the east and North-East retained to some extent. On Thursday, the axis of the trough passed through Bikaner, Jaipur, Satna, Ranchi, Kolkata and southeastwards into east-central Bay of Bengal.

This would in turn mean that the ongoing rainfall over Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and the North-East would continue for at least three more days.

The Bay `low', however, is predicted to propel rainfall into Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh.

On the west coast, the offshore trough continues to run from the south Gujarat coast to the Kerala coast.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along the West coast during the next three days.

The strengthening flows may also throw up a cyclonic circulation over the northeast Arabian Sea, as per projections by some models. An India Meteorological Department update said that rain or thundershowers are likely over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, east Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Kutch.

DEFICIT IN NORTHWEST

Among the four major geographical divisions, only northwest India has posted a deficit (-8 per cent) as per the all-India rainfall figures as on August 22. The south peninsula has returned a surplus of +13 per cent, while the respective figures for central India is +6 per cent and northeast India, +1 per cent.

The crucial July-August season that featured a prolonged `break monsoon' has had a bearing on the overall rain figures. Sixty per cent of the area as a whole received deficit rain during the two-month period, while 21 per cent recorded only scanty rainfall. Excess or normal rainfall was confined to 19 per cent of the landscape.

However, the season as a whole (June 1 to August 22) gives a diametrically opposite picture with rainfall deficit being restricted to just 18 per cent of the area. As much as 51 per cent received normal rainfall, while 31 per cent recorded a surplus.

The problem areas with entrenched deficit throughout the season till date included Himachal Pradesh (-29 per cent); Marathwada (-35 per cent); western Uttar Pradesh (-31 per cent); east Madhya Pradesh (-33 per cent) and Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi (-28 per cent).

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