The Hindu Business Line : Rain surplus retained as monsoon enters last leg

The southwest monsoon has managed to maintain its successful run as it enters September, the last leg of the four-month season, with the all-India area weighted rainfall leaving a two per cent surplus.

The surplus may have shrunk by one percentage point relative to the position a week ago, but there is no change in the fine print - rainfall distribution at the Met sub-divisional level stands pat with 29 in the excess/normal category and only 7 in `deficient.'

The rain-deficit areas straddle the plains of northwest India with Himachal Pradesh (-32 per cent), Punjab (-21 per cent), Haryana (-32 per cent), west Uttar Pradesh (-35 per cent) and east Madhya Pradesh (-33 per cent) aligned contiguously north to south. Marathwada (-24 per cent) in west-central India and Arunachal Pradesh in the northeast (-24 per cent) complete the list.

WORRYING FEATURE

What is worrying is that some of these divisions housing crucial growing areas have remained in the deficit list right through the season. Others have moved in and out of the `normal' range at least for some time in between. Going forward, a few stand to receive rain during the rest of the season from an itinerantly migrating monsoon trough, though not quite covering up the deficit in full.

The position presents an improved picture year-on-year, given that as many as 13 sub-divisions had run up a deficit during the same period last year (against seven this year) with the excess/normal list adding up to only 23 (five excess and 18 normal, against 12 and 17 of this year).

CIRCULATION BUILDS

On Friday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that an upper air cyclonic circulation has taken shape over west-central and adjoining coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh. The location close to the coast limits the extent to which it can intensify, but it is still expected to descend to lower levels to set up the next low-pressure area.

The weak `low' is seen tracking a south-southeast to north-east direction along the Andhra Pradesh-Orissa coast and will stay put for days together sending the outer rain bands to reach as far as east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. It could interact with the tail of the monsoon trough to kick up heavy to very heavy rainfall in east India and the northeast.

Projections by international weather models indicate that the week ending September 7 will see rainfall being concentrated in the east as well as on the west coast, what with the offshore trough being active there.

The subsequent week will see the wet session getting heavy and compressed more to the southwest coast, while rainfall will scale up manifold towards the east.

TYPHOON FORMS

Meanwhile, as predicted, the west-central Pacific houses the latest typhoon, named Fitow, aiming to hit Japan in the next five days. The warm seawaters will propel Fitow expectedly into super typhoon status even as it tracks a west-northwest track deemed benign to prospects of Indian monsoon.

The `teleconnection' is expected to keep the Bay of Bengal in good spirits. International weather models depict the basin to be in an `accommodative posture' at least up till September 10.

Back home, current meteorological analysis suggests fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Andhra Pradesh during the next two days. The rainfall activity will later extend into Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.

The offshore trough will continue to bring widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls along the West coast during the next four days also. On Friday, the axis of the monsoon trough passed through Bikaner, Jaipur, Shivpuri, Chamba, Puri and onward into east-central Bay of Bengal.

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