The Hindu Business Line : ‘Low’ holds as strong westerly flows sustain

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 2 An upper air cyclonic circulation lurking over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal and along the north Andhra Pradesh coast descended to lower levels to set up a weak low-pressure area over the weekend.

Proximity to land surface is seen acting as a drag denying the system engine the feed needed to intensify beyond a point. But the stronger southwesterly flows will help it sustain for sometime, according to model forecasts.

RAINS IN EAST

The ‘low’ is holding one of the monsoon trough whose pronounced bias to the east and northeast has been causing some heavy precipitation in these regions over the past few days.

On Sunday, the axis of the trough passed through Anupgarh, Churu, Gwalior, Satna, Champa, Titlagarh and the centre of the low-pressure area before dipping into the west-central Bay of Bengal.

According to Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com, most of the sub-continent will witness stray thunderstorms through early this week. In keeping with the time of year, the southeastern two-thirds of it will host nearly all widespread rains with ‘hot spots’ for potentially excessive falls of rain over Kerala and Karnataka and over the northeast (the Himalayan foothills).

MONSOON WITHDRAWAL

The ‘low’ in the Bay would contrast with the monsoon system preparing to withdraw from northwest India, which could happen any time from now. Early September is the appointed hour, though Mr Andrews did not see any tell-tale signs just yet.

The northwest, as also west-central India, is largely clear of clouds for the time being, even resembling weak monsoon conditions. Any hint of the seasonal anti-cyclone that moves in to hasten monsoon withdrawal was conspicuously missing, too.

HEAVY FALLS

Meanwhile, the ‘low’ over the southeast coast will cause widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh till Monday, an update by the India Meteorological Department said. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls also likely to commence over Orissa and Chhattisgarh.

Current meteorological analysis suggests that the fairly widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy fall over the northeast will continue for the four days. The active offshore trough will bring in widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the west coast over the next three days also.

CLOUDBURSTS LIKELY

Ongoing wet session over the west coast is likely to hold through the week ending September 9, says an assessment by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Isolated rainfall episodes measuring up to 500 per cent above seasonal normal are likely during the week.

But the peninsular interior, especially the western flank, will record less than normal rain during the period. It will, however, be normal over east-central peninsula.

Rest of central India will, too, witness normal rain, thanks to a weather system seen emanating from Bangladesh.

Going forward, the rainfall over the west coast will become compressed and heavy to the extreme southwest (south Kerala and the peninsular tip) during the week beginning September 9, the NCEP said in its forecast.

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