The Hindu Business Line : Rise and re-emergence of Putin’s Russia

Even as India shapes its relations with NATO, on the one hand and the Russian military alliance, on the other, measures must be taken to strengthen our economic, academic and people-to-people ties with Russia, without which the bilateral relationship will be unsustainable, in the long term.

G. Parthasarathy

In a televised address on July 17, President Vladimir Putin proclaimed: “There are forces both in Russia and the US that abide by 20th Century thinking, rather than the 21st Century, those who love and feed on ideas of the past competition. While protecting our national interests we can always find solutions to problems through compromise, rather than confrontation”.

Precisely a month later, Putin announced: “At midnight today, August 17, 14 strategic missile carriers, support and refuelling aircraft took off from seven air-force bases in different parts of the Russian Federation and began a patrol involving a total of 20 aircraft. Such patrols will be carried out on a regular basis. The patrols are strategic in nature”.

As Russian aircraft spread out across the Atlantic, resuming a practice ended in 1992, NATO jet-fighters in Europe scrambled from their bases to deal with a totally new situation. Significantly, this development followed Moscow’s decision to develop strategic nuclear capabilities to counter the US decision to deploy anti-ballistic missile defences in Poland and the Czech Republic, despite Russian concerns.

Ever since the Soviet Union collapsed, the Russians have witnessed American and NATO measures to contain their influence and encircle them militarily and diplomatically. These measures included the admission of former Warsaw Pact members and such Soviet Republics as Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania into NATO, coupled with various forms of associate arrangements between NATO and the former Soviet Republics of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

No effort was spared by NATO members, led by the US, to influence oil-rich Central Asian Republics like Kazakhstan to build oil pipelines bypassing Russia, to meet the energy demands of the West. Moreover, continuous efforts were made to replace pro-Russian establishments in Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Ukraine and elsewhere by pro-western Governments in the name of promoting democracy, even while an authoritarian dynastic leadership in Azerbaijan, willing to play ball with western oil companies, was warmly welcomed into the western fold.

Transformation

For nearly a decade, the Russians, led by an occasionally sober Boris Yeltsin, watched these moves with little resistance. But in eight years Vladimir Putin has transformed Russia, which has shown a sustained growth of 6.7 per cent annually over the past eight years.

With a budget surplus of 9 per cent of GDP, foreign exchange reserves that have grown from $12 billion in 1999 to $315 billion in 2006 and vast reserves of oil, natural gas, minerals and metals, combined with reforms in banking, tax and labour sectors, Mr Putin has built Russian power to an extent where he can be far more assertive of developments in its neighbourhood and the world at large.

He has made it clear that Russia will no longer quietly accept western dikats, particularly in its neighbourhood. But even Putin realises that while he can assert Russia’s relevance on international issues related to, say, West Asia, he has to strike deals with Washington on such matters as the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programmes.

He knows that earning Washington’s wrath, except on key issues to Russia, like independence for Kosovo, or developments in its immediate neighbourhood, is not wise, given Moscow’s own vulnerabilities on issues like its admission to the WTO.

Partner to India

Moscow has steadfastly stood by India in its moments of crisis. Despite its opposition to our nuclear tests in 1998, Russia did not impose sanctions on us, or halt its cooperation on crucial issues of national security. Even today, it is Moscow’s assistance that enables us to keep the nuclear reactors in Tarapur running, thanks to its airlift of uranium stockpiles.

Moreover, Moscow is an indispensable partner in India’s efforts to build a secure satellite global positioning system for the country.

Further, the Russians have honoured commitments made to us in the 1980s and gone ahead with cooperation for the construction of nuclear power plants in Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu, despite earlier American objections.

Russia has been forthcoming in inviting India participation in the energy sector through an investment of $2.7 billion for the development of the Sakhalin 1 oilfield. But, Russia realistically acknowledges that unless Washington eases nuclear sanctions on India there is little prospect for further cooperation with India on issues of nuclear power. Hence, Moscow’s interest in seeing that the Indo-US Nuclear agreement is implemented. Sadly, our Left parties show little understanding of such realities of international politics.

Defence agreements

It is crucial that Defence agreements, such as the purchase of 126 fighter aircraft, where options of buying from countries other than Russia may well be exercised, should be implemented with utmost transparency, to avoid misperceptions in Moscow, that we may be motivated by anything other than considerations of what is best for our armed forces and our Defence industry.

We should undertake joint collaboration in the development of advanced weaponry like Cruise Missiles, fifth generation fighter aircraft and naval technologies, with Russia.

Moscow, in turn will, no doubt, recognise our genuine concerns on their pricing and supply of spare parts and their inability to stick to delivery schedules on crucial equipment like SU-30 fighters and the Gorshkov aircraft carrier.

But, for the foreseeable future, Moscow should remain the major partner in our Defence procurements and industry, collaborating where needed, with France and Israel.

Responding to the expansion of NATO across their borders, the Russians have developed a military alliance — the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) — bringing together Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Following these developments, the US now has military facilities for operations in Afghanistan, in Kyrgyzstan alone, in neighbouring Central Asia.

China relations

The Russians are also endeavouring to develop security cooperation between the CSTO and the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (CSO), linking Central Asian states to Russia and China.

It was in this background that the large-scale military manoeuvres of SCO members led by China and Russia were held recently in the presence of Presidents Putin and Hu Jintao in the Ural Mountains.

India should ensure that these developments are not utilised by China to strengthen its policies of “containment” of Indian influence across Asia and in the Asia-Pacific Region.

A major challenge that India will face in coming years is on how to fashion its approach to relations with NATO on the one hand and the CSTO, on the other.

But, even as we evolve our approach to these developments, measures need to be taken to strengthen our economic, academic and people-to-people ties with Russia, without which the bilateral relationship will be unsustainable, in the long term.

The growth of bilateral trade, which stood at a paltry $2.76 billion in 2005-2006, has been inhibited by high transportation costs, an absence of healthy business contacts and visa restrictions for Indian businessmen visiting Russia.

Further, the “Strategic Corridor” linking India to the Caspian Sea boundaries of Russia through the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas has not worked efficiently because of the slow pace of transit of Indian exports to Russia, on Iranian territory.

These are issues that have to be resolved at the highest political levels.

At the same time, Moscow will have to be persuaded that New Delhi’s growing ties with Washington will not be at the expense of Russian interests, particularly in its immediate neighbourhood.

(The author is former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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