The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon carries surplus into Sept

Thiruvananthapuram, Sep. 7 The southwest monsoon has retained the 2 per cent surplus as on Wednesday (September 5) carried over from the previous week even as forecasts seemed to affirm that the withdrawal process would be set in motion after September 10 only.

The number of Met sub-divisions recording excess/normal precipitation went up by two (31 against 29), while those posting a deficit (7) were fewer by an identical margin. Arunachal Pradesh and Marathwada (-18 each) lifted themselves to ‘normal’ category.

The situation would have been much better, had it not been for the scanty rainfall week-on-week in Punjab and Gangetic West Bengal (-77 per cent each) and Jharkhand (-79 per cent). An intervening weak phase of monsoon has since proved the conspicuous leveller.

RAIN-DEFICIT AREAS

As per all-India statistics made available by the India Meteorological Department, the rain-deficient Met sub-divisions till date are Himachal Pradesh (-32 per cent); Punjab (-24 per cent); Haryana (-33 per cent); west Uttar Pradesh (-35 per cent); and east Madhya Pradesh (-34 per cent). Irrigation facilities available in some of these regions should help salvage the situation to some extent.

The hilly regions of northwest India are witnessing the passage of a westerly trough. This should bring scattered to fairly widespread rainfall to hills with the possibility of isolated heavy falls over western Himalayan region and isolated to scattered rain over the adjoining plains.

This type of weather would hold good for the next 24 hours, but model predictions suggest that another westerly system is expected to approach the hilly regions close on its heels. This will bring to bear exactly similar weather conditions to these regions until September 10.

Subsequent to this, model predictions suggest that northwest India is likely to come under the influence of the seasonal anti-cyclone that lets in dry and sinking air and clears up the skies. The stage will then have been set for the calibrated withdrawal of monsoon from parts of west Rajasthan.

SECONDARY TROUGH

On Friday, the axis of the monsoon trough passed through Alwar, Hardoi, Chappra, Ambikapur and Burdwan before dipping into the east-central Bay of Bengal. The prevailing intensive weather has spawned a secondary trough running from east Uttar Pradesh to north-east Assam across Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

Meanwhile, Thursday’s upper air cyclonic circulation was traced to Bihar and adjoining east Uttar Pradesh on Friday. Widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh during the next four days.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, North Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and at a few places over the rest of northwest India. Rain/thundershowers are also likely at many places over north Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh during next two days.

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