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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept. 9 The southwest monsoon seems to have catapulted itself back to the early-June onset settings with both extreme southwest peninsula and the northeast coming under active spells of rainfall from spatially different causative features.

The wet weather is expected to hold for the next five days in these parts even as a rain-scarce northwest India is bracing to bid adieu to the four-month-old season.

Otherwise, monsoon flows have largely weakened and rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued over many parts of the country, according to an update by India Meteorological Department.

The axis of the monsoon trough runs close to the foothills of the Himalayas, suggesting weak monsoon conditions for the rest of the country. A secondary trough continues to run from Bihar to northeast Assam across sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim indicating active wet conditions in the region.

Current meteorological analysis suggests that the fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the Northeastern States, West Bengal and Sikkim will persist for four more days. Rain/thundershowers are likely at most places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and at many places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

A cyclonic circulation hovering over Maldives and the peninsular tip is what brings scattered to fairly widespread rainfall to the extreme southwest peninsula. But the rain-driving offshore trough extending from Maharashtra to Kerala has weakened considerably.

Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh during the next 48 hours.

A western disturbance is expected to approach the hilly regions of northwest India during next two days. Under its influence, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over hilly regions of northwest India with possibility of isolated heavy falls over the western Himalayan region and isolated to scattered over adjoining plains from Monday evening.

Subsequent to this, the northwest is tipped to slip under the shadow of a ‘ridge’ (high-pressure area heralding clear weather) on the heels of the monsoon preparing to leave the landmass, but would come into token resistance from the Bay of Bengal for one last time.

A weak ‘troughing’ is seen influencing the southeastern coast going into the next week as part of a slight pick-up in monsoon flows targeting a building ‘low’ in the east Philippine Sea. The pattern will become best established by June 20, even throwing up a circulation pattern over the southwest Bay.

As per assessments by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), extreme southwest peninsula, parts of interior peninsula including western Maharashtra and eastern fringes of south coastal Andhra Pradesh should experience varying amounts of rainfall during the week ending September 16.

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Monsoon harks back to early June settings

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