The Hindu Business Line : ‘Low’ in Bay may herald fresh monsoon surge

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept. 13 The southwest monsoon is set to sign off in style with a renewed buzz in the Bay of Bengal expected to produce a couple of low-pressure areas in quick succession over the next fortnight.

The two systems promise to bring the monsoon thundering back for one last time to north-peninsular India, the west coast, parts of central India, and extreme south peninsula. But northwest India is likely to remain beyond the reach of the fresh surge and stay dry.

The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts sees winds associated with the second ‘low’ howling to near-cyclonic strength astride the Andhra-Orissa coast around September 23.

This system would have brought most of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, apart from parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, under wet to extreme wet conditions. It is forecast to move north-northwest from west-central Bay before consummating in landfall over the Andhra-Orissa coast. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction seems to concur with this outlook.

FIRST ‘LOW’ FORMS

Meanwhile, the first ‘low’ has already taken form over the northwest Bay on Thursday, and is expected to track a north-northwest direction bringing east and northeast India under the footprint of fresh spell of rainfall.

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system is located close to the coast over the northwest Bay and adjoining coastal areas of West Bengal and north Orissa. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very falls is likely to occur over north Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim and the North Eastern States during the next three days.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is also likely over Bihar and Jharkhand during the same period. The ridge-like setting in northwest India will likely prevent the system from taking a trademark west-northwest direction and foraying into central India.

Existing trough in low-level westerlies from Arunachal Pradesh and North Bay has become less marked, which means that this system would be free to move within the confines of the monsoon trough that runs close to the Himalayan foothills.

Model prediction also suggests that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity over south peninsular India would continue for another four days since a causative cyclonic circulation continues to persist over the Lakshadweep region.

The current scenario suggests that the subdued rainfall activity will sustain over northwest and central India for the same period. But rain or thundershowers are likely in West Bengal, Sikkim, north Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand, east Uttar Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada.

A warning issued by the IMD and valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over north Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim and the North Eastern States.

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