The Hindu Business Line : Fresh `low' in Bay; another pops up

A fresh low-pressure area has formed over the west-central Bay of Bengal on Monday, with weather models predicting that a busying-up South China Sea/west Pacific will cause migrant circulations to set up more such systems in the Bay.

They already see a followup `low' taking shape over the Bay by September 21 in what looks like a monsoon bracing to peak again, though with a southerly bias, at a time when it would normally be shaping up to quit the landmass at the fag end of a season.

In fact, the end-season flourish promises to rain it down heavily not only over the already soggy west and adjoining central India, but also the rain-scarred north and northwest to some extent.

INTERACTION LIKELY

What the weathermen are looking forward eagerly to is the expected interaction that one of these lows would set up with a rare (for this season) large-amplitude westerly trough dipping south to cover northeast Arabian Sea. These interactions have been far few between this time, which explains to a large extent the rain deficit in the north and northwest.

Some models indicate the possibility of this westerly trough spinning up an embedded cyclonic circulation over the northeast Arabian Sea, which could cause a momentum shift in the prevailing weather over Gujarat and southwest Rajasthan. This is because the wind pattern in these parts has already shifted to being anti-cyclonic marking monsoon transition, with clear skies and hardly any cloud.

INTENSE PACIFIC

Meanwhile, the west Pacific is witnessing intense activity and satellite pictures showed a massing of cloud extending from the east into the Bay of Bengal. Typhoon `Nari' has made a landfall over South Korea, but another one raging to the immediate west and named `Wipha,' is aiming to cross the southeast China coast possibly within the next 24 hours. International weather models indicate a third system brewing in the South China Sea attaining typhoon strength and making a landfall by September 27.

This will be possibly accompanied by the genesis of a `low' over the south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood, another instance of a migrant circulation setting up a base within India's territorial waters.

RAINS FOR ANDHRA

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that the fresh `low' over west-central Bay is likely to intensify and become more marked. It will move in a westward direction and bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Andhra Pradesh during the next three days.

The current meteorological analysis suggests that the fairly widespread rainfall activity over the remaining parts of the south peninsula, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep will hold for four more days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely over Kerala, Lakshadweep, the Andaman Islands and interior Karnataka during the same period.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very falls is likely over Maharashtra and Goa except Vidarbha. Rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Konkan, Goa, Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra, and at a few places over Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and east Madhya Pradesh.

Related Stories:
Monsoon puts withdrawal on backburner
‘Low’ in Bay may herald fresh monsoon surge

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