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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 21 All-India seasonal rain surplus has been retained at 3 per cent as on September 19, even as a fresh monsoon surge from the peninsular coasts promised to deliver progressively in the north and west of the country.

Thirty Met sub-divisions have recorded excess or normal rainfall as on date, while the rest six in the north and the northwest are in chronic deficit. It is too late to entertain any hope of a reviving monsoon current drastically altering the scenario.

Scanty rains week-on-week has only aggravated the situation in Himachal Pradesh (-35 per cent), Punjab (-26 per cent), Haryana-Delhi (-31 per cent), west and east Uttar Pradesh (-41 per cent and -24 per cent) and east Madhya Pradesh (-33 per cent).

Meanwhile, the well-marked ‘low’ persisting over the Andhra Pradesh-Orissa coast is expected to intensify into a depression, says India Meteorological Department forecasts. It will move slowly to the west-northwest initially, before settling for a more westward course.

Under its influence, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during the next three days. Subsequently, rainfall is likely to shift westward and reduce in intensity.

International models suggest the formation of a ‘low’ over northeast Arabian Sea off the Konkan-south Gujarat coast and its subsequent movement into mainland India. Resulting rains are expected to wallop a region extending northeast from Gujarat to the western Himalayas.

Model predictions continue to suggest that a westerly trough is likely to move across the hilly regions of northwest India during the weekend and the early next. The Arabian Sea ‘low’ might get embedded into it and the combined entity might set up an interaction with the advancing depression from the Bay.

In the process, the hilly regions of the northwest, eastern and central India are likely to receive enhanced rain for at least a four-day period. Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and isolated over the rest of the region during the next two days and increase thereafter.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is also likely over Maharashtra, Goa, South Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.

Thundershowers are likely at most places over Orissa and at many places over Gangetic West Bengal. Rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places over Jharkhand and isolated over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh during next 48 hours and scale up thereafter.

In the South, rain/thundershowers are likely at most places over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, north Telangana, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and South Gujarat. A warning valid for the next two days said that scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over north Telangana, south Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and Andaman & Nicobar.

A few weather watchers are pinning their hopes on another incoming western disturbance and a likely brewing ‘low’ next in the Bay to help bring some welcome rain to the rain-deficient regions of the north and the northwest.

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Rain surplus holds despite north staying dry

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