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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept. 24 India Meteorological Department (IMD) late on Sunday evening traced a full-fledged ‘low’ over the northeast Arabian Sea, which has become well-marked overnight.

Along with the depression to the east of the country, it will spearhead the fresh monsoon rally into the farming heartland even as international weather models suggested its intensification, at the expense of the depression, into a possible cyclone.

According to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), the low-level circulation centre around which the system builds (lying 240 km west of Mumbai) is attracting convective bands to converge. The strong south westerlies to the south of the disturbance could further enhance the low-level development.

Other factors that the JTWC see as aiding the denouement is the low vertical wind shear, an anti-cyclonic circulation overhead that aids divergence in the upper levels and the enhanced uplift provided by the Western Ghats. High wind shear can lop off the head of the towering weather system, leading to its assured collapse.

Divergence at the top provides the system with the ventilation, which prompts more and more convective bands to wrap into the system.

Uplift of the bombarding monsoon flows against the natural barrier of the Western Ghats drives up vorticity (intense circulatory motion) manifold.

Winds buffeting the system were estimated at speeds of 20 to 25 knots. Due to the improving low-level circulation centre and favourable upper level conditions, the JTWC assessed as ‘fair’ the potential for the development of a cyclone.

On Monday, the constantly shifting offshore trough ran along an alignment linking it from centre of the well- marked ‘low’ to the Lakshadweep area (Kerala coast the previous day).

The trough in the western disturbance extending from north Pakistan to the northeast Arabian Sea persisted.

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