The Hindu Business Line : West coast ‘low’ weakens but lies in wait

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept. 25 The battle between two concurrent weather systems for securing control of the monsoon proceedings has seemingly tilted in favour of the weakening depression over east India, with its smaller but ambitious west coast counterpart choosing to ‘blink first’ on Tuesday.

An India Meteorological Department statement (IMD) issued late on the previous evening had stated that the well-marked ‘low’ in the northeast Arabian Sea could intensify into a depression overnight. International models had gone one step ahead by predicting even a moderate cyclone.

But an update by IMD on Tuesday said that the system had, in fact, weakened into a conventional `low’ while the monsoon depression over east India too had wound down to being a well marked ‘low.’ The Arabian Sea system is anchored still over the warm seawaters, giving it an outside chance for intensification.

CANNOT CO-EXIST

On the other hand, the east India system was very much based over land and could only weaken further. Weathermen are quick to explain out the scenario by saying that two strong monsoon systems cannot normally co-exist to pull monsoon in different ways. But exceptionally vigorous monsoon conditions have been known to throw up such a scenario.

On Tuesday, the well marked ‘low’ in the east lay over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood. Under its influence, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh over the next two days. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over West Bengal, Sikkim, west Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

The IMD bulletin further said that the well marked ‘low’ over northeast Arabian Sea off the Saurashtra coast will combine with the offshore trough running to Kerala coast to bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls likely along the west coast.

DEFICIT AREAS

Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over west Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, two chronically rain-deficit Met subdivisions thus far, during the next two days and decrease thereafter. Rain/thundershowers are also likely at a few places over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi and isolated over Punjab, all deficit areas.

To the adjoining east, rain/thundershowers are likely at most places over Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh and at many places over West Bengal, Sikkim and Jharkhand. As for the northeast, rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places but will only scale up in intensity thereafter.

Towards the south, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, apart from a few places in interior Karnataka, could witness rain or thundershowers. Wet conditions are forecast for Konkan, Goa, Gujarat and Saurashtra in the west.

An IMD warning for the next two days spoke of heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over West Bengal, Sikkim, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Konkan, Goa, Saurashtra, south Gujarat, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.