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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept. 26 The Bay of Bengal is warming again, with a new cyclonic circulation expected to spring up around September 30 when, normally, the withdrawal schedule of the southwest monsoon would be complete.

Early indications are that monsoon might start withdrawing from parts of extreme west Rajasthan after Tuesday’s ‘low’ over east India weakened gradually and the trough in the mid-and-upper level westerlies pulled itself out of reckoning.

But the anti-cyclone would now have to contend with a fresh bout of wet weather over the southeast coast (Andhra Pradesh-Orissa) resulting from the brewing cyclonic circulation. Worse, a few weather models suggest that the circulation could descend to suitable levels to set up yet another ‘low.’

This would provide for a near-repeat of a scenario enacted around the same last week when the buzz in the Bay stopped the anti-cyclone on its tracks before going on to becoming a full-fledged monsoon depression.

The strengthening flows had resonated in the northeast Arabian Sea and a ‘low’ was borne, which is patrolling the region still now.

The anti-cyclone brings clear weather and cloudless skies and marks the transition from monsoon to autumn and progressively winter in north and northwest India. Western disturbances would then become increasingly frequent and herald winter rains in the region.

A weather update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said that the ‘low’ over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood has become less marked.

But an upper air cyclonic circulation lay over west Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood. Some models suggested that the system might break up into two after impacting the Himalayan barrier causing cloudbursts in the foothills.

Current meteorological analysis suggested that fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next two days. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over remaining parts of east India and parts of the north-eastern States during the five days.

Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh, Delhi and Haryana.

These are all chronically rain-deficient Met subdivisions now getting its due from the first monsoon system entering the region and setting up a delayed interaction with an itinerant westerly trough.

The lingering ‘low’ currently lying over Gujarat and neighbourhood will continue to bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Gujarat, Saurashtra and north Konkan during next three days. Though no models indicate strengthening of the system, its rain-bearing potential is being keenly watched. In the South, rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, interior Karnataka, north coastal Andhra Pradesh.

In central India, rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Chhattisgarh.

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Bay warming up again to prolong rains

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