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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 4 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has put the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal under watch for a low-pressure area expected to form in the next two days.

The causative upper air cyclonic circulation continues to persist over the west-central Bay off coastal Andhra Pradesh. It is expected to get heaved in a north-northeast direction by the prevailing westerlies, and will feed on the warm waters in the northwest Bay to intensify.

Some international weather models expect this to go on to become a depression, but this would bear some watching. A potent feed from the South China Sea system, Typhoon Lekima that barrelled into Vietnam late on Wednesday could aid this transformation, says Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Orissa during the next two days. The rains would extend further into the east and cover West Bengal, Sikkim and the north-eastern States, apart from Jharkhand in the immediate neighbourhood.

Meanwhile, model predictions suggest that the southwest monsoon would withdraw entirely from the remaining parts of west Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, some more parts of Madhya Pradesh and some parts of Maharashtra during the three days.

An IMD forecast said that isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, as a western disturbance comes calling.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) bets on this post-monsoon ‘low’ in the Bay foraying deeper into land and setting up what looks like a ‘pseudo’ monsoon trough along the Himalayan foothills. This trough would likely set up an interaction with a visiting westerly trough and drive up rain even into Uttar Pradesh.

The combined entity would then be driven to the east under the influence of the dominating westerly trough, but would have left back a remnant over Rajasthan.

The eastward movement of the combined entity is expected to bring the rains back to east India and the northeast, before the system fades out of relevance. But this would have coincided with a fresh warming in the Bay under the influence of the Philippine Sea-based Typhoon Krosa crossing into the East China Sea before making a landfall on mainland China.

ECMWF goes on to suggest that Typhoon Krosa would catalyse the genesis of an upper air cyclonic air circulation over the west central Bay around October 13.

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IMD hoists ‘low’ watch over Bay

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