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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 5 A low pressure area has formed over the west-central Bay of Bengal off the north Andhra Pradesh coast, the first such during the post-monsoon season, but it will drive monsoon-like rain into east and northeast India over the next few days. The prevailing westerlies and the advancing seasonal anti-cyclone will deny the system safe anchorage on the southeast peninsular coast. Instead, they will cause the system to negotiate the coastal waters and move in a north-northeast direction.

Sea-surface temperatures are comparatively higher in the Head and adjoining northwest Bay where the system is being guided into. The extended stay over these warm waters should serve to scale up the system strength.

An India Meteorological Department update said that the ‘low’ is likely to cause fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh and south Orissa during the next two days. The rains will relent after this, but the larger rain belt will shift to other parts of east and northeast India. In the north, a westerly trough is passing over the hilly regions of northwest India, and will bring rains to these regions over the next two days. Earlier forecasts had indicated the possibility of interaction of this trough with the south easterlies from the Bay system to bring rains to the plains, but this is being discounted now.

The interaction, if at all, would take place somewhere far into the northeast leading to locally torrential rains in that region. In any case, the IMD has forecast isolated rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Other regions expected to receive rain or thundershowers during the next two days are coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and to a lesser extent over Vidarbha, east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Outlook for early next week suggested that fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over parts of the East India and the north-eastern States.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Krosa marching across the East China Sea has ramped up as a super typhoon (a destructive Category-4 storm) and is heading for a landfall over Taiwan by Saturday. Indications are that it will head back into the sea, recurve to the north-northeast and intensify in the process.

Super Typhoon Krosa too is depicted as touching off some activity in the Bay of Bengal with a cyclonic circulation expected to stroll around the southeast peninsular coast late next week. It will bring the southern peninsula under a wet cover, before being driven away by the westerlies in a north-northeast direction along the coast.

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Bay ‘low’ drives monsoon-like rain to east

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