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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 14 A maze of cyclonic circulations hang over the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal joined on the west by another over Lakshadweep-Maldives islands but the easterly wind regime has either lacked in speed or strayed.

The three circulations over the Bay are over the southwest Bay off the Tamil Nadu coast, the northwest Bay off the Orissa and West Bengal coast and the north Andaman Sea.

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models suggested fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over West Bengal, Sikkim and the north eastern States from Monday. This is the second time post-southwest that a major rain belt is migrating to east and north-east India.

Scattered rainfall activity is also likely over extreme south peninsula during the next four days. The east-west shear zone of monsoon turbulence is very much in evidence in the region but the rain-driving inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the global band of low-pressure, has not quite moved into place.

The presence of ITCZ will infuse life into the cyclonic circulations idling over strategic regions in the Bay. According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the convergence zone will take some time moving in, leaving the circulations in a state of drift along the southeast coast. None of them is forecast to intensify into a ‘low’ anytime soon.

But the US National Centres of Climate Prediction (NCEP) continues to forecast wet cover for the entire peninsula during this week as well as going into the next. ‘Blow-up’ of rainfall has been indicated for extreme south peninsula as well as the Head Bay of Bengal, where the cyclonic circulation is depicted as seen crossing the coast and into the mainland.

The entire southeast coast will get varying rainfall through this week while the coverage would get concentrated into the south in the following week. A major ‘blow-up’ is indicated for the extreme Tamil Nadu coast during the latter period.

The current scenario suggests that minimum temperatures are likely to remain below normal by two to three degree Celsius over many parts of northwest and central India during the four days. West Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal may witness isolated rain/thundershowers during mid-week as a western disturbance passes by.

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Wet cover to stay over peninsula

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