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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 17 The westerlies-to-southwesterlies from a trough in the passing western disturbance is lately seen sustaining the disturbed weather in the North-East and the ongoing precipitation.

On Wednesday, the parent cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh and adjoining North Bay of Bengal had moved to over Assam and Meghalaya. Sibling circulations have since popped up over Gangetic West Bengal and east Uttar Pradesh. The net result is that the hold-up in the southwest monsoon withdrawal process continued for a second day on Wednesday.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said the unsettled weather over these affected areas would continue for another day pinning the withdrawal line along an alignment markedly north of the normal.

The October-15 alignment linked Goa on the mid-southwest to Cuttack before reaching it to the east of Ranchi/Patna. The normal would have been Mangalore-Hyderabad-Gopalpur-Northwest Bay and into Myanmar.

Meanwhile, in the South, Tuesday’s cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and Maldives had shifted to southeast Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast. The other system over the southwest Bay off the south Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining Sri Lanka had moved to south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Comorin area.

An IMD forecast said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places in Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep; at a few places coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala; and at isolated places in Rayalaseema and coastal and south interior Karnataka.

The two systems in the South are jointly presiding over the scattered wet session in the extreme south peninsula. The intermittent rains will continue over the next three days, by which the weather in the North-East would clear up.

This will shift the focus back to the peninsular coasts, where the east to west shear zone would start building once again. A US National Centres of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forecast said that the northeast monsoon should set in during this period (by Saturday) hitching a ride with an incoming easterly wave.

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Westerlies prop up system in N-E

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