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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 23

A day after the northeast monsoon was officially declared as having set in over the Bay of Bengal, ‘disruptive features’ evolving to the west over the Arabian Sea have sent weathermen scurrying back to their map rooms.

The ghost of Super Cyclone Gonu (the system that nearly killed the southwest monsoon during onset in June) is haunting them, with hints of another destructive cyclone stalking the Arabian Sea during the week ahead.

Gonu’s successor is seen as treading the same path of calibrated growth in power and vigour, culminating in a likely blow-up over the Oman coast around October 30. In the process, it will have ‘waved down’ an approaching ‘low’ from the Bay.

This ‘low’ would now be forced to buy time for a landfall over the Tamil Nadu coast, which is now expected to take place around October 31 — three days later than scheduled, but a day after the ‘pretender’ to Gonu erupts in a spurt of heavy torrents over the Gulf coast.

Most of the easterly monsoon winds could get directed into the domineering Arabian Sea system, much in the way Gonu contrived to pack itself with hurricane-strength winds. The onset phase of southwest monsoon had chalked for want of moisture diverted in this manner.

But the impact of the latest storm may not be that big, if only for the fact that it is not brewing in the same sea basin as the northeast monsoon. In contrast, the southwest monsoon had to contend with a storm of Gonu’s bearing in its own backyard.

According to the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Bay system would have scaled itself up to a depression by the time it crosses the Tamil Nadu coast. Some other models predict that it could go on to become a cyclone.

Meanwhile, the rain bands from the Arabian Sea storm could lash the southwest coast of India. The Konkan and south Gujarat coasts may be impacted. The Bay ‘low’ (or depression), too, is forecast to slide into the Arabian Sea to set up an offshore trough along the coast and bring some wet weather over the region.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Tuesday said under the influence of two troughs of low pressure areas over southwest Bay of Bengal and southeast Arabian Sea, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to continue over south peninsula.

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