The Hindu Business Line : Floods may lead to loss of 40 lakh tonnes of rice

After wheat, there is trouble next brewing on the rice front. According to official estimates, heavy rains and floods have damaged about 23 lakh hectares (lh) of area under paddy, especially in the eastern States.

This is expected to result in a production loss of at least 40 lakh tonnes (lt) of rice, which is a cause for some concern.

Contributors

The States where the crop has been badly affected are Bihar (14.4 lh), Karnataka (4.16 lh), Assam (2.25 lh), West Bengal (1.25 lh) and Orissa (0.85 lh).

The fortunate part, however, is that none of these States are major contributors to the Central pool.

Their combined share in the total rice procurement of 250.75 lt by the Government agencies during the 2006-07 season (October-September) was only 31.35 lt or 12.5 per cent. And of this, the biggest chunk of 19.93 lt was accounted for by Orissa, where the damage has been the least.

Moreover, the status of the crop in the main contributing States — Punjab, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — is said to be good, even as there are reports of the freshly transplanted samba (pongal) paddy in Tamil Nadu getting submerged by the recent heavy downpour.

“We don’t see procurement being really impacted; at most, it would be lower by 20 lt or so”, officials noted.

Stocks

As on October 1, rice stocks in the Central pool, at around 55 lt, were marginally above the normative minimum buffer of 52 lt.

During the new 2007-08 marketing season, Government agencies have bought 76.94 lt as on November 2, which is slightly below the 81.19 lt for the corresponding period of 2006-07.

“There will no problem on the procurement front per se.

But lower production in eastern India would call for additional release of public rice stocks to augment reduced market availability.

To that extent, there will be pressure on stocks”, the officials admitted.

The recent floods have also led to an estimated output loss of 10 lt in Bangladesh, which could encourage smuggling across the border and further undermine domestic rice supplies.

Shortage

“We are talking of a potential shortage situation extending from eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and the North-East right up to Bangladesh”, the officials added, while justifying the recent decision to ban export of low-priced non-basmati rice from the country.

This move would prevent about 30 lt from going out and to that extent, augment domestic availability.

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