The Hindu Business Line : Musharraf’s second coup

The unanimous view is that Gen Musharraf took the drastic step of imposing Emergency in Pakistan because he was sure that the Supreme Court would give an adverse judgment on his election as President.

Rasheeda Bhagat

The second coup unleashed on Pakistan in eight years by General Pervez Musharraf has left the nation gasping for breath. But make no mistake about it, this coup is very different from the one in 1999, which was accepted without questions, with even celebrations from some quarters of a civil society that was fed up of successive corrupt regimes provided by politicians of the ilk of Mr Nawaz Sharif and Ms Benazir Bhutto.

A visit to Karachi and Lahore soon after the first coup had one a little puzzled to find people speaking in glowing terms about an army general in a country where snide remarks about the army and the perks its top brass enjoy are most common. Pakistanis have always admitted ruefully that their real masters, even during the tenure of democratically-elected governments, are the US and the Pakistan Army, in that order. “Our politicians can survive only if they do salaams to both of them”, has been the common refrain in our neighbouring country.

But eight years down the line, the man who had remained the most powerful in Pakistan’s administration — Gen Musharraf — failed to cash in on the general contempt for politicians among Pakistanis. His latest coup, which everybody, including the former Prime Minister and Pakistan People’s Party (PPF) chief, Ms Benazir Bhutto, insists is nothing short of military rule, has only got angry people out on the streets.

The unanimous view is that he took this drastic step because he was sure that the Pakistan Supreme Court would give an adverse judgment on his being declared the President of Pakistan.

The Supreme Court Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry, has been sacked and put under house arrest, the media gagged and outspoken opposition leaders and activists such as Imran Khan and Asma Jehangir have been detained. While lawyers, human rights activists and ordinary citizens battle it out on the streets of Pakistan, the rest of the world has only frowned on the action of Gen Musharraf. His argument that judicial activism and an “irresponsible media” had only fuelled the flames of terrorism and emboldened the extremist elements to carry out only more suicide bombings in the country, does not hold water.

Muted response from Washington

But what is surprising is the muted response from Washington and the Bush administration which has done little more than wave a stick urging the General to shed his uniform, hold elections on schedule, and so on. Three is also some vague talk of reconsidering military and other aid to Pakistan, but the decibel is inaudible. What was loud and clear in a muted promise to “reconsider US aid to Pakistan” was the blunt message in the US Secretary of State, Ms Condoleezza Rice’s statement in Jerusalem on Monday. She said, not once but three times, that President Bush’s first concern was “to protect America and protect American citizens by continuing to fight against terrorists. That means we have to be very cognizant of the counter-terrorism operations that we are involved in… the fact that some of the assistance that has been going to Pakistan is directly related to the counter-terrorism mission.”

In simple words, the message is that even though the US might be waging wars in countries such as Iraq in a self-proclaimed endeavour to usher in democracy by ousting “dictators” such as Saddam Hussein, dictators of a different ilk, such as Gen Musharraf, are acceptable to the Bush administration if they come in handy to “protect America and American citizens.”

And what about protecting Pakistani citizens? And their right to democracy and a life of safety and dignity? What about civilian unrest and anarchy in Pakistan holding dangerous portends for the entire South Asian region, particularly India, because any leader — political, military, or whatever — pushed against the wall in Pakistan would find it so tempting to turn the barrel of the gun pointing to his/her head towards India? But, of course, such inconsequential questions would not interest Ms Rice as they don’t fall within the ambit of “America and American people”.

The European Union has been more firm in asking the General to hold elections as scheduled and restore democracy at the earliest. And pressure from the West did make him and his Prime Minister, Mr Shaukat Aziz, do a quick about-turn and exclaim that all efforts would be made to hold elections on schedule.

Role of Benazir Bhutto

All eyes are now on Ms Bhutto and the course of action she takes. Questions are asked on whether her trip to Dubai just prior to the declaration of Emergency by Gen Musharraf was just a co-incidence or planned. Was she in the know of the tumultuous developments that would take place? After all, a couple of days prior to the Emergency, when the Supreme Court made it clear that it was in no hurry to give its judgment on the case concerning the General’s presidency, there was a widespread feeling of doom within Pakistan. The media, judicial representatives as well as human rights activists had predicted that Gen. Musharraf would not fail to take drastic measures if there were indications on the judgment going against him. So only the timing was important and Ms Bhutto was conveniently missing from the scene when Emergency was clamped.

Whether in the know or not, she has made the right moves — the first one being to rush back home — and noises condemning the latest coup, demanded free and fair elections under a caretaker government, which would then ensure her return to power as the other main protagonist, Mr Nawaz Sharif, will not be allowed to return by the General. So for all practical purposes her much-touted “deal” with the General continues.

For her it is a win-win situation; she is not directly involved in this black deed, her bete-noir is kept out of the way and she would bethe frontrunner in the elections, whenever they are held. With the Supreme Court now being manned by judges favourably inclined towards the General, chances of Mr Sharif’s return in the near future are remote.

Business as usual?

But not every group in Pakistan is vehemently opposed to Pervez Musharraf’s latest coup. Mr Majyd Aziz, President of the MHG group of Industries (which deals in textiles) and immediate past president of the Karachi Chamber of Industry and Commerce, actually welcomes the emergency. He told Business Line that in the last seven-eight months, “the citizens had become constitutional experts, everyone was talking about the Supreme Court, the Uniform issue, and the lawyers’ crusade. Fear of suo motu action by the rejuvenated courts was holding back pragmatic and pro-active decision-making by officials. So much so, the country’s textile industry was being neglected and the decision to revive the industry was held back as policy-makers had no time to deliberate on such crucial issues.”

Mr Aziz believes the emergency will “bring back sanity and stability; in the short run the idealists will have a field day, but once the dust settles down, the after-effects of the step will be positive and stock markets should boom.” He ascribed the 6 per cent crash in the Karachi Stock Exchange on the Monday after the coup to rumours that Gen Musharraf had been overthrown. “Even as I say all this, I’ve got an sms saying Imran Khan has been murdered. Right now, rumour mongers are having fun, but in the long run, counter-terrorism measures in the tribal areas would be made more effective. The US will make a few relevant noises but eventually they will reconcile to the fact that Pakistan is leading the anti-terrorism campaign from the front.”

But while conflicting opinions continue in Pakistan, one cannot help an overwhelming feeling of sadness at the tragic state of affairs and the pitiable position to which Pakistan’s leaders — in either civilian garb or khakhi — have reduced the country in 60 years of freedom.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in