The Hindu Business Line : China, India growth may prompt energy crunch: IEA

Mumbai, Nov. 7 For the world already facing a huge energy challenge, the next 10 years are going to be critical primarily because two of Asia’s most populous countries China and India are going to be large consumers of energy to fuel their economic growth; and there is a case for all countries to take vigorous, immediate and collective action to curb runaway energy demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook 2007 published in London today.

Suggesting that energy developments in China and India are transforming the global energy system as a result of their sheer size and growing importance in international energy markets, Mr Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of IEA, said the consequences of unfettered growth in global energy demand are alarming for all countries.

If governments around the world stick with existing policies, the world’s energy needs would be well over 50 per cent higher in 2030 than today even as China and India together account for 45 per cent of the world’s increase in global primary energy demand, the report predicted, adding both countries’ energy use is set to more than double between 2005 and 2030.

Coal demand

Worldwide, fossil fuels - oil, gas and coal - continue to dominate the fuel mix. Among them, coal is set to grow most rapidly, driven largely by the power-sector demand in China and India. The consequences of these trends are likely to prove grave in that there will be continued growth in global energy-related emissions of carbon-dioxide (CO2), from 27 Gt in 2005 to 42Gt in 2030, a rise of 57 per cent.

China is expected to overtake the US to become the world’s biggest emitter this year, while India becomes the third largest emitter by around 2015. China’s per capita emissions almost reach those of OECD Europe by 2030, the IEA pointed out.

Painting a grim picture of the oil market, the report stated that although production capacity at new fields is expected to increase over the next five years, it is very uncertain whether it will be sufficient to compensate for the decline in output at existing fields and meet the projected increase in demand.

Supply crunch

A supply side crunch in the period to 2015, involving an abrupt escalation in oil prices, cannot be ruled out, IEA cautioned. A radical shift in investment in favour of cleaner, more efficient and more secure energy technologies has been suggested.

IEA is clearly targeting both China and India for not only for greater cooperation for energy conservation but also for eventual IEA membership.