The Hindu Business Line : Pakistan: Uncertain times ahead

It is unlikely that Pakistan’s major opposition leaders, Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mr Nawaz Sharif, will boycott the elections scheduled for next month. And it remains to be seen whether Gen Musharraf will resort to “political engineering” to put in place a political dispensation of his liking. Whatever the outcome of the elections, Pakistan is heading for a politically turbulent period, says G. PARTHASARATHY.

Testifying before a Senate sub-committee in Washington of December 7, the US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Mr Richard Boucher, conceded that while the elections Gen Musharraf is proposing to hold on January 8 will not be “perfect”, Pakistan could nevertheless hold elections that are “transparent” and “fair”.

Mr Boucher’s confidence about elections even being “fair,” if not “perfect,” is not shared by the two most prominent political parties in Pakistan — the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), led by Ms Benazir Bhutto, and the Muslim League — PML(N) — led by Mr Nawaz Sharif.

Both these parties are trying to agree to a Charter of demands to ensure that the elections are not rigged by Gen Musharraf, the way he rigged the elections held by him in 2002, when his protégés led by the Pakistan Muslim League(Q) made up of dissidents from the PML(N) got themselves voted to office by some ingenious “political engineering” effected by the ISI, which then proceeded to split the People’s Party to muster up a pliant majority in Pakistan’s National Assembly.

Ms Benazir Bhutto has alleged that the Musharraf Administration has already passed on thousands of ballot papers to constituencies across the country to stuff ballot boxes. Political parties and the media have alleged that the “King’s Party,” the PML(Q), has been given access to State machinery to facilitate its candidates and District Nazims “elected” under President Musharraf’s dispensation are using their immense powers to prop up the “King’s Party”.

Neither Ms Benazir nor Mr Sharif have any faith in the Chief Election Commissioner appointed by President Musharraf or the compliant judiciary installed after the independent judges led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhury were arbitrarily sacked and placed under house arrest under the Martial Law (dubbed as a provisional Constitutional Order) proclaimed by Gen Musharraf when he was still the Army Chief. Despite demands from many political parties that the elections must be boycotted, unless the sacked judiciary is not restored to office and a neutral caretaker administration and neutral Chief Election Commissioner are appointed, it appears unlikely that any of the major political parties will boycott the polls, as the PPP led by Ms Benazir would not want to risk American displeasure by joining a boycott.

American misgivings

The Americans have let it known that actions by the former Chief Justice, freeing suspected terrorists long held without any charge were not liked by them. Moreover, the American misgivings about Mr Nawaz Sharif were made explicit by President Bush himself.

Speaking to CNN on November 29, President Bush stated: “I do not know him (Nawaz Sharif) well enough. But he is reported to have good relations with Pakistan’s religious parties, which raises doubts about his commitment to battling the Taliban and al Qaeda. I would be very concerned if there is any leadership in Pakistan that didn’t understand the nature of the world in which we live today”.

Just a day earlier, President Bush proclaimed: “General Musharraf is a person who has done a lot for Pakistan democracy”. There will not be too many takers in Pakistan for this assertion, though many Pakistanis believe that India’s Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, shares a similar affection and regard for Pakistan’s erstwhile army chief. If President Bush looked the other way as the ISI helped the Taliban in Baluchistan, Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s Government has absolved the Musharraf Government of all responsibility in the recent plot by terrorists of the Jaish-e-Mohammed to kidnap Mr Rahul Gandhi.

This refusal to do or say anything that inconveniences Gen Musharraf is obvious, because Government spokesmen nowadays go out of their way to say that we should not allege that terrorist activities in India being carried out by Pakistani nationals are supported by the Pakistan Government.

The Manmohan Singh Government has become a virtual apologist for terrorism sponsored from across the border – a policy we will live to regret. Having introduced amendments to Pakistan’s 1973 Constitution that give sweeping powers to the President, it is obvious that Gen Musharraf intends to retain the levers of power with a pliant Prime Minister and a docile Parliament.

How will he achieve this? He will not hesitate to use all available elements of State power to ensure that neither Ms Benazir Bhutto nor Mr Nawaz Sharif get anywhere near an absolute majority in Parliament.

If Major General Ehtesam Zamir of the ISI helped him achieve this in 2002, he will count on Lt. Gen Nadeem Taj and Brigadier Ejaz Shah, who head the ISI and the Intelligence Bureau, to deliver the goods in 2008.

The “political engineering” sought by the ISI and IB will aim to ensure that Ms Benazir Bhutto’s Party can come to power only in coalition with Musharraf-friendly parties like the Karachi-based MQM, the King’s Party, PML (Q) and the ISI-backed Jamat ulema e Islam of Maulana Fazlur Rahman. It remains to be seen whether such “political engineering” will succeed. Gen Musharraf will count on the Americans declaring that though not “perfect,” the elections were “fair”.

Saudi angle

Saudi Arabia has also entered the political scene to ensure that the Americans can hedge their bets. The Saudis who are traditionally revered in Pakistan earned the wrath of Pakistanis at large, when they unabashedly collaborated with Gen Musharraf to have Mr Sharif exiled to Saudi Arabia when he returned to Pakistan.

Shortly after the British announced that Mr Sharif should be allowed to participate, the Saudis insisted that Mr Sharif should enjoy a level playing field with Ms Benazir in any election.

King Abdullah made an aircraft available for Mr Sharif to return and bullet poof cars for him to travel within Pakistan, for electioneering. The Saudi Ambassador is the only person granted permission to meet Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhury while he is still under house arrest. Thus, should by some chance, Mr Sharif do unexpectedly well in the forthcoming elections, the Saudis can always be used to ensure he plays ball in the “war on terrorism”.

Turbulent times ahead

Pakistan is heading into uncharted and turbulent political waters. Differences between the Prime Minister, the Parliament and civil society organisations, on the one hand, and Gen Musharraf, on the other, will inevitably emerge within months of the elections.

At that stage, Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, who would have consolidated his hold over the army, will emerge as the key figure to deal with national issues, as an independent centre of power. Experience has shown that Pakistan’s Generals, once in office, seldom blindly side with their mentors.

Pakistani friends have told me that Gen Musharraf is seen in his country as being more popular in New Delhi and Washington than in Pakistan. There is a feeling in Pakistan that India tacitly supported Gen Musharraf’s crackdown and Martial Law, by refusing to take a principled position on Pakistan’s membership of the Commonwealth, where we have traditionally supported moves to exclude countries under military rule.

The Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, will do well to remember this, before he chooses to undertake an early official visit to Pakistan, as Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Mr Inamul Haq, has stated that such a visit is expected shortly after the January 8 elections.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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