The Hindu Business Line : FAQs on New Year

Obviously, the best resolutions are those that are easy to remember and keep. I have, for instance, resolved that I shall have no trucks with the three Chinese monkeys and follow the rule that everybody’s business is equally my business. As always, I shall continue to preach what I never practised, and practise what will bring me the maximum happiness. These, methinks, are in tune with the turbulent times we are living in.

What new year prophecies stand the best chance of scoring the bull’s eye?

Here, take your pick, and do not blame me if you lost your bets on them:

Senator Hillary Clinton will become both the first woman President of the US and one whose spouse also was a former President. India will have nothing to worry about the change of guard at the White House. While her predecessor was pro-India as well as pro-Pakistan, President Lady Clinton will be pro-India and anti-Pakistan.

Relations of the US with Iran and North Korea will cease to be a cause for worry about a possible repeat of Iraq.

Iraq will remain a thorn on the US flesh.

India will have to walk on egg-shells with regard to its neighbours. The lame-duck UPA Government in the last year of its term will be relegated to the position of a bystander rather than influencing the course of events.

Sri Lanka will come out in the open opting, with some notable successes, for a military solution for the problem of LTTE.

The stalemate in Myanmar between the pro-democracy forces and the military junta will continue with increasing pressure put on India to play an interventionist role on behalf of the former.

India will be drawn more and more into the vortex of repercussions of Nepal proclaiming itself a republic.

In Pakistan, President Pervez Musharraf will disappear from the scene some time in the middle of the year, and a full-scale military takeover followed by rigorous enforcement of martial law (with the US’ acquiescence) will become inevitable to save the country from a prolonged period of unrest and instability.

What of China?

As an article in the July-August 2007 issue of The Washington Quarterly makes clear, the US has made no secret of its policy of preserving its strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region “by facilitating the ascent of friendly Asian centres of power that will both constrain any Chinese bid for hegemony and allow the US to retain its position as Asia’s decisive strategic actor.” There is a prevalent impression that India has wittingly fallen for what the journal calls “America’s Grand Design in Asia” meant to encircle and contain China. China’s suspicion of India on this count will lead to its adopting an increasingly uncompromising attitude on issues affecting bilateral relations, especially the border dispute.

What will happen to the nuclear deal?

It will be on ventilator till new Governments come to power both in India and the US. In the aftermath of the Gujarat debacle, the UPA Government will just not be in a mood to force it down the throat of the Left parties or Parliament.

Even if the residuary actions are completed at the India-end, it will not be possible to get the approval of the US Congress for the 123 agreement during the Presidential election year. Both sides may as well relax.

Is there any possibility of mid-term poll for the Lok Sabha?

No. Since there is going to be no showdown between the UPA and the Left on the nuclear deal, the Government will coast along to complete its term.

B. S. RAGHAVAN