The Hindu Business Line : Cyclonic whirl to drive wet weather

Thiruvananthapuram, Jan. 8 The passing western disturbance has thrown up an embedded cyclonic circulation (not amounting to a ‘low’) over North Pakistan and West Rajasthan, promising to scale up the snowfall and rains in the hills and plains of the northwest.

The western Himalayan region is bracing itself to witness an intense spell over the next 2-3 days, according to a forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday. Going forward, the wet session will spill over into the plains over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.

The rains are expected to help salvage the standing Rabi crops in the region. Lawmakers in the Agriculture Ministry have expressed the hope that the wheat harvest could be rounded off at 75 million tonnes (mt) provided the weather behaved, by ensuring intermittent rains and sufficiently cooler climes through February and March.

Seasonal forecasts

Seasonal forecasts made by the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction and Society at Columbia University indicate normal to cool weather for the region during the January to March period. The former, though, has predicted flare-ups in temperature at isolated places in the Indo-Gangetic plains during this period.

The UK Met Office has forecast ‘cold or average cold conditions’ to prevail in the region. On the other hand, it was not optimistic about the precipitation prospects.

Meanwhile, minimum temperatures have further increased and are above normal by 4-6°C over most parts of Northwest India. They are expected to continue to be appreciably above normal during the next two or three days but may decrease thereafter, as the rear of the westerly trough shows up.

ITCZ moving south

Meanwhile, in the south, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is seen drifting to the south of Sri Lanka from mid-January on its journey for the seasonal perch in the southern hemisphere. This would bring down the curtains on the northeast monsoon season over the southern peninsula.

The Ensemble Forecast System of the US Military still shows the possibility of the ITCZ toying with northern Sri Lanka and India’s peninsular south (South Tamil Nadu) to spark off a momentary wet session before drifting to the south.