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Suresh P. Iyengar

Mumbai, Jan 17 Reports of a recent outbreak of bird flu may have little impact on soyabean prices as bullish international palm oil market is expected to provide key support.

“Though the bird flu has been confirmed, the Government has not yet estimated the impact. However, firm Malaysian palm oil market will retain bullish sentiment in soya complex,” said Mr Harish Galipalli.

Palm oil prices, which hit historic high of 3,413 ringgit per tonne last week in the Malaysian Derivative Exchange, closed with a gain of 97 ringgit at 3360 ringgit, after touching an intra-day high of 3376 ringgit on Thursday.

After witnessing a sharp fall in the domestic markets on Wednesday, soya complex recovered on Thursday. Soyabean for February delivery on NCDEX rose 1.19 per cent to Rs 2,132 per quintal, while soya oil was up 1.34 per cent to Rs 596 per 10 kg.

“The outbreak of bird flu in India could provide support to the bearish sentiments in the short term. However, the underlying trend in oilseeds continues to remain bullish,” said Mr Amol Tilak, research analyst, Kotak Commodities.

Soyabean production in India touched 94.83 lakh tonnes in 2007-08 against 71.5 lakh tonnes last year.

In the World Agriculture Supply and Demand estimates report, the United States Department of Agriculture has lowered global soyabean production estimates by 1.3 million tonnes to 220.3 million tonnes from last month’s. The major fall in output was seen in US, Brazil and Argentina.

“Argentina received heavy rainfall in the central crop belt. This has brought some relief from the persistent dry weather. The hot weather would continue as the rains are sporadic and not enough to recover soil moisture.

The soybean crops would continue to remain under stress,” said Mr Tilak.

“We expect soybean for February delivery to touch Rs 2,200 per quintal in next 10 days, while soyoil February contract may hit Rs 610-Rs 620 per 10 kg,” said Mr Galipalli.

More Stories on : Commodity Markets | Oilseeds & Edible Oil

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