The Hindu Business Line : Time to march forward

India’s population was 361 million, in 1951, according to the Census. The number swelled to a little over one billion in 2001. The forward march would go on and the population by 2026 is expected to touch 1.4 billion, representing an addition of 371 million in the 25 years between 2001 and 2026, and the increment being a bit higher than the population size in 1951.

National Population Policy 2000

The Policy has two principal goals — achieving the population replacement level of fertility, that is, a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 by 2010 and a stable population by 2045. TFR of 2.1 broadly reflects the average number of children born per woman.

In other words,, if a woman were to give birth to one boy and one girl on an average, and the process continues from generation to generation, it will eventually help stabilise the country’s population size.

There are many sub-goals of NPP, which are to be achieved by 2010. First, there is the need to address the gaps in basic reproductive and child health services, supplies and infrastructure. No policy will have any practical meaning without the needed infrastructure.

Second, the policy has the laudable goal of making school education up to age 14 free and compulsory, and reduce dropouts at the primary and secondary school levels to below 20 per cent for both boys and girls. What is needed is far more than sundry education imparted by de-motivated teachers to reluctant students in dilapidated schools in the name of some scheme or the other. The unmet needs here are many.

The third sub-goal is to reduce the infant mortality rate to below 30 per 1,000 live births. More the chances of survival of children, less the need to give birth to more. The fourth and fifth sub-goals — reducing maternal mortality and achieving universal immunisation of children — also have links to child survival and health. The sixth sub-goal is promoting delayed marriage for girls to the age of 18 or 20 and beyond.

The other goals with a fairly strong link to fertility decline objective are achieving 80 per cent institutional deliveries and 100 per cent deliveries by trained persons; universal access to information; counselling and services for fertility regulation and contraception with a wide basket of choices; 100 per cent registration of all vital events, and so on.

If all the sub-goals were in place, the country would have begun the march towards population stabilisation. This is not to be. The Table shows the projected TFR for 2010 for the States. It turns out that the BIMARU States have fertility rates equal to or higher than three, a far cry from the target of 2.1, despite the fact that these States have provided national leaders of eminence and achievement.

The Eleventh Plan Working Group

A Working Group on Population Stabilisation for the Eleventh Plan (2007-2012) was constituted by the Planning Commission with terms of reference that include such important aspects as the review of the current demographic projections, the NPP goals, suggesting strategy for achieving population stabilisation as early as possible, and providing financial implications for implementation of family welfare programme during the Eleventh Plan.

The Working Group came up with a set of strategies to achieve population stabilisation: Meeting the unmet demand for contraception; expanding the basket of contraceptive choices; increasing male involvement; diffusion through satisfied users; using the mass media; arranging group meetings of newly-wedded couples and pregnant and nursing mothers; social marketing; involvement of private sector; increasing the visibility of the population stabilisation programme; strengthening family welfare infrastructure; and involvement of local self-governments.

When a high-level working group of renowned experts deliberate on a critical issue such as population stabilisation, one must not expect just one or two strategic initiatives. They must be in fair numbers and as comprehensive as possible. Notwithstanding this observation, the two components — increasing male involvement and strengthening family welfare infrastructure — make most sense and are vital. They refer to re-popularising vasectomy and strengthening family welfare infrastructure.

It is a pity that male methods account for only 6 per cent of current contraceptive use. Most men who had gone through vasectomy, notably all those who had good medical attendance, would unhesitatingly vouch for the simplicity, safety and efficacy of the procedure. In fact, it is an act of showing infinite respect towards women rather than bothering them with complicated contraception, pregnancy termination and surgical procedures relatively more complex than vasectomy. The Working Group acknowledges that vasectomy has gone “out of favour after the excesses committed in the 1970s”. It only means that a lot more effort is now needed to put the past on the back burner and move ahead.

Excellent public health infrastructure is vital for family welfare programme delivery. The Working Group refers to a facility survey that has brought out serious shortfalls in physical infrastructure, staff and supplies at pubic heath institutions. Without adequately addressing the problem, it is difficult to target population stabilisation at the level of 1.4 billion.

Not to Forget the Mahatma

Margaret Sanger, famous leader of the birth control movement, paid a visit to Wardha where Gandhiji used to live. She wanted to convince Gandhiji of the importance of birth control methods. The latter heard her patiently and said that the real remedy for population control was in the proper education of women. When women are educated, they, along with men, will realise that if they produce many children, they will have to provide them necessary food, clothing, shelter, education and other amenities of life.

Gandhiji also stressed the importance of women’s freedom: “... if I can drive home to women’s minds the truth that they are free, we will have no birth control problem in India.... I do not suppose all husbands are brutes, and if women only know how to resist them, all will be well.” (Harijan, January 25, 1936).

(The author, formerly with the National University of Singapore and the World Bank, is a visiting faculty at Sri Sathya Sai University. He can be reached at bhanoji@gmail.com.)

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