The Hindu Business Line : Coping with an ageing population

While the rise in population continues to be a cause for alarm, the burgeoning numbers of the aged are particularly scary. Indeed, they are threatening to push the world into its gravest crisis.

A study recently published in Nature has come up with the perturbing fact that in the next 25 years, the number of those above 60 will increase from 10 per cent at present to 13 per cent in 2020, 17 per cent in 2030 and 32 per cen t by the end of the century.

No country will remain unaffected by this phenomenon. Already, the proportion of senior citizens in Japan has crossed 21 per cent, which is more than double of what it was just 20 years ago. By 2100, China will witness a steep jump in the proportion of the aged from 10 per cent today to 42 per cent, and Western Europe from 20 per cent today to 46 per cent.

In India, the Population Commission estimates the aged to increase from 62.3 million to 112.9 million within the short span of the next ten years.

People are living longer because of advances in medical science and access to a variety of health-care facilities. Among other things, in the case of former government staff, this has a direct impact on the outgo towards pension. The amount (Rs 39,074 crore) Government shelled out as pensions to its retired employees in 2006-07 was almost equal to that (Rs 40,047 crore) paid as salaries and allowances paid to its workforce.

An interesting fact is that between 1992 and 2007, pay and allowances to Central Government employees rose at an average annual rate of 5.47 per cent, while pension payments registered a whopping 16.20 per cent annual increase.

During 2006-07, the Centre’s pension liability increased by almost 58 per cent or more than Rs 14,000 crore. It should not be a surprise if the actuals in the 2007-08 Budget show the amount paid as pension outrunning pay and allowances to a conspicuous extent. Some sustained thinking should go into ways of stopping this liability assuming unbearable proportions.

Intractable dilemma

Unless they ruin their health by excessive drinking or other onslaughts on their metabolism or are unexpectedly struck down by some serious health problems, most people, especially the well-to-do among them, can now reasonably hope to live well past 75, remaining in a fit mental and physical condition. Finding no scope for their energies or experience, they either tag themselves on to NGOs or simply while away their time in playing cards, watching TV or gossiping.

It is not also uncommon nowadays to come across families consisting of elders who are in their late nineties. Even if they are economically independent, old age takes a heavy toll in the form of loneliness, separation from near and dear ones who are scattered round the globe and sometimes deliberate neglect by their own offspring.

It is true that the Government has recently enacted a law making such neglect a punishable offence, but laws can never take the place of, or make up for, love, affection, compassion, companionship and solicitude — all of which are not forthcoming in the needed measure any more.

The problem becomes all the more acute for both the older and younger members of the family if the former are infirm or invalid and have to be cared for round-the-clock.

Taking them now and again to the doctors’ clinics or having them admitted in hospitals becomes a financial, physical and mental strain for the younger lot, besides interfering with their own other worldly obligations.

Here is an intractable social dilemma for which no one has come out with a solution so far.

B. S. RAGHAVAN

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