The Hindu Business Line : Focus shifts to mercury regime in northwest

Thiruvananthapuram, Feb. 18 With rain and associated unstable weather having lifted from large parts of the country save the extreme north and the North-East, focus has shifted to how seasonal temperatures would pan out in the plains.

An ideal February-March temperature regime has crucial implications for the Rabi wheat crop, especially the late sown variety this season. Hardly any rain fell in the north and northwest during October-December 2007 bringing about unprecedented moisture stress conditions in the entire belt.

The situation underwent a change for the better with the dawn of the New Year, but only just about, with a couple of weather-making western disturbances drifting into the country. The rains were confined to Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, to some extent.

On Monday, an India Meteorological Department update said that current meteorological analysis suggests no significant change in minimum temperatures over northwest India, Rajasthan and adjoining central India during the next two days. But the mercury will inch up northwards thereafter.

Available forecasts by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction say that average day surface temperatures will range from 15 degrees Celsius to 20 degree Celsius over north Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh during the week ending February 25.

Warming anomalies (temperatures above the normal) have been forecast for west Gujarat and adjoining west and northwest Rajasthan, besides parts of Punjab. Similar flare-ups are seen dotting the plains extending to the east up to Bihar.

The subsequent week, however, is likely to see the cold dipping down over west Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and the northeast, constricting the extent of the contiguous 15 deg C-to-20 deg C belt. In turn, the 20 deg C-to-25 deg C belt will creep more into the southeast, reaching up to coastal Andhra Pradesh.

In the South, a cold anomaly is seen establishing over parts east Kerala, interior Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka.

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