The verdict sends out a strong message to the US, which has backed a dictator like Gen. Musharraf to the hilt; a man who had systematically destroyed all democratic institutions in Pakistan. The low point of his assault on democratic institutions in his country was reached when in a bid to safeguard his position he undermined the judiciary in Pakistan in a manner never attempted before by his fellow-army generals.

The Bush administration could not miss the irony of the Pakistan verdict; it proves that a nation can return to democracy because its people choose to do so. Attempts to enforce democracy under the shadow of a sword — or through bombings as happened in Afghanistan and Iraq — invariably results in disaster.

The rejection of Gen. Musharraf was along expected lines and a major reason for this was the manner in which he managed to keep the two most important political leaders of Pakistan out of the country for nine long years, conducting one sham election during the meantime. That was a given, but what has come as a surprise is a much stronger performance by Mr Nawaz Sharif than was expected.

The cruel assassination of PPP’s Benazir Bhutto on the eve of elections, the several voices with which the Pakistani administration spoke, and the conflicting signals it gave about the cause of her death, had indicated that the PPP would make a clean sweep of the polls. Almost the entire world forgot the real credentials of Benazir Bhutto, the two very corrupt regimes over which she had presided, etc, and had mourned her death, hailing her as the only saviour of Pakistan.

But at the end of the day, if the PPP could not cash in fully on the sympathy factor and managed to get only 87 seats in the National Assembly (equivalent of our Lok Sabha), failing to get even a simple majority in the House, there are two reasons for this. First, Mr Asif Zardari, the infamous “Mr 10 per cent” of the Benazir regime, does not enjoy overwhelming support from all classes in Pakistan. The manner in which the Bhutto family virtually hijacked the party, within days of Benazir’s death, declaring her son Bilawal as ‘chairperson for life’, did not go down well with the people. That is one of the reasons why Mr Zardari has been saying all along — before the elections and after the results — that he is not in the race for the prime minister’s post.

Two, if Mr Sharif has performed better than was expected by political pundits, it was surely because of the manner in which he was humiliated by Gen. Musharraf. The first time he returned home from Saudi Arabia, he was bundled into an aircraft by the Pakistan administration and forced to return for yet another stint of exile. It was only at the behest of the US that he was allowed to return home again . The pathetically low voter turnout could also be a reason for the outcome of the elections.

With so much of world attention on the election process, this time around, the Pakistan poll was free and fair; surely Gen. Musharraf expected to be the loser in this election and those sympathetic to him say he wanted to at least ensure this last act “in the interest of the nation”, a phrase that had become an integral part of his lingo. His opponents, of course, point out that since he was no longer the army chief; he could not enlist its help to rig the polls. There were reports that the new Army Chief, Gen. Pervez Kiyani, had given strict instructions that the army should stand by and allow a free and fair elections.

So important has the retired general’s survival become that instead of wondering at two bitter rivals such as the PPP and PML (Nawaz) coming together to form a government — it is almost like the Congress and the BJP allying to form a government— the debate is centred only on what will now happen to the Pakistan President. The Bush administration will, of course, have to bail out the general, and indications of this are already visible. The hostile and angry posturing from both the political camps about President Musharraf having no option other than stepping down, have already mellowed.

The US, widely looked upon in Pakistan as ‘HMV’ (His Master’s Voice), has swung into the picture. The Pakistan President will, of course, look at Washington to save his office and, on Wednesday, the Pakistan Ambassador, Ms Anne Pattersen, held a meeting with Mr Zardari. After the meeting, Mr Zardari said the right words about taking “revenge” by changing the law, etc, and “not by hurting people”. More significant was his homily on how the US has always “stood by the people of Pakistan” and how it would help the new Pakistan government to “strengthen democracy”. Having interacted with academicians, businessmen and media persons in Pakistan, one can visualise the smirks and the scowls with which such statements are being received in Karachi or Lahore. But the same people also know that US aid is, perhaps, going to be more crucial in the future than in the past, for the very survival of Pakistan as a sovereign nation.

Mr Nawaz Sharif is likely to push harder for President Musharraf’s sacking; he cannot be impeached as the PPP and the PML (N) do not have the requisite two-thirds majority in the two Houses of Parliament, as the PML (Q) continues to dominate the upper house or the Senate. But he will have to go along with the decision of the larger partner in the coalition government.

The government, when it is formed, will have several battles to fight. While it will be easier to change laws, reinstate the sacked judges, and restore the independence of civil institutions, at least till the time the politicians do not need to undermine such offices yet again for personal benefit, moving Pakistan back from the brink, where it stands now, will be a really challenging task.

The most daunting challenge will come from the two estranged or disenchanted regions — the North West Frontier Province and Baluchistan — which are already on the warpath and making a bid to breakaway. In Peshawar, the Taliban sympathisers abound and this has been an unstable region for a long time; its tribal leaders have no love lost for Washington and vice-versa holds true. Containing hostilities in this region and keeping the country together will be a huge task by itself.

The next big challenge will be restoring the credibility of politicians. For the hapless people of Pakistan, democracy has returned with the same old players, many of them discredited for both corruption and inefficiency. It was virtually a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. If today, leaders like Mr Zardari, or even Mr Sharif, don the role of saviours of Pakistan, it is only because of the depths to which General Musharraf had plunged in a desperate bid to save his own office.

The next few weeks are going to be important for our troubled neighbour. Whether the new government is able to provide an efficient and clean administration to Pakistan, remains a mute question.

One thing is certain though; a stable and sovereign Pakistan can only be in the interest of India. Never mind that once the new regime is firmly in place, it won’t take it too long to indulge in sabre rattling with India over the Kashmir issue. But we can deal with that.

More Stories on : Politics

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page