The Hindu Business Line : Will democracy work in Pakistan?

The really difficult task before Pakistan’s unlikely coalition partners — once bitter foes — will be delivering on the promise of providing an efficient and corruption-free administration in a country that is fast going downhill
on various fronts such as law and order and the
economy, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT.

Political developments in post-election Pakistan are taking on interesting dimensions, many of which will have long-term implications for India. The wish-list of the two principal parties — Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) — remains the same on the vital issue of forcing the exit of the President, Gen Pervez Musharraf, even as they thrash out ways and means of sharing power, not only in Islamabad but also the four provinces.

The Pakistani media is buzzing with speculation that as the American dispensation has not been able to get the PPP co-chairperson, Mr Asif Ali Zardari, to spare the retired general, President Musharraf will hand in his resignation sooner than later.

Getting rid of the unwanted Pakistan President, though, will be the new government’s easiest achievement as hardly any tears are likely to be shed over the general’s exit. A much more difficult task will be delivering on the promise of providing an efficient and corruption-free administration, as any government is expected to do, in a country that is fast going downhill on various fronts such as law and order and the economy.

Brewing discontent

That the discontent brewing in the North-West Frontier Province and Balochistan is being taken seriously by Pakistan’s new rulers in an encouraging sign.

Of course, when Mr Zardari tried to mend fences with the estranged population of Balochistan by apologising on Sunday for the “atrocities and injustices committed” in the province in the past, and promising it “maximum autonomy”, it was clear he had an eye on forming the provincial government in the region.

Extending the olive branch, he called for halting the ongoing military operation in the region and promised to release all political prisoners. Mr Zardari added: “The PPP, on behalf of the people of Pakistan, apologises to the people of the province of Balochistan for the atrocities and injustices committed against them and pledges to embark on a new highway of healing and mutual respect.”

He recalled how the late PPP chief Benazir Bhutto, on returning to Pakistan, had visited Balochistan to offer her condolences over the killing of popular Baloch leader Akbar Khan Bugti in a military operation in August 2006.

But while this posturing is for political power, what is of significance, particularly to India, which has battled over long years to combat Pakistan- backed terrorism activities in the Kashmir valley, is the warning to the incoming Pakistan government from the Taliban and other extremists who are virtually ruling Pakistan’s north-west.

Reuters quoted Maulvi Omar, a spokesman for the Taliban in Pakistan, saying that any offensives against them in the tribal areas of Pakistan would lead to more violence and bloodshed.

“Whoever makes the government, we want to make it clear to them we don’t want fighting. We want peace, but if they impose war on us, we will not spare them. We don’t want political parties to repeat the mistake which Musharraf committed and follow a path dictated by the United States.”

This warning has been issued mainly to the PPP leadership, which hopes to form a government in the NWFP in coalition with the ANP (Awami National Party). But, then, if these forces are allowed to have their way, cross-border terrorism will get a boost and our problems in Jammu and Kashmir, as well as rest of India, will only be compounded.

In Punjab the PPP hopes to form a government along with the PML-N; and in Sindh, the telephone wires have been burning between Pakistan and London, as Mr Zardari and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) chief, Mr Altaf Hussein, thrash out a formula for sharing power in the province where the Mohajirs enjoy substantial clout.

PPP, the winner

Despite failing to get a simple majority in the National Assembly, where the PPP is set to form a coalition government with Mr Nawaz Sharif’s party, if Mr Zardari’s hectic political parleys are successful, the PPP will have a stake in all the four provinces of Pakistan and, ironically, in her death, Benazir would have helped her party to return to power after 12 long years.

In February 1997, Mr Sharif had returned to power in Pakistan with a huge majority after the corrupt PPP government was sacked in 1996 and was rejected by the people in 1997 elections. Significantly, both the regimes of Benazir, including her first stint in 1988, were dismissed on charges of corruption. Mr Sharif too has not managed to complete a full term; his first stint lasted from 1990 to 1993 and the second one (1997) came to an end in 1999 after the Kargil misadventure and through the coup launched by Gen Musharraf. With the Pakistan army always waiting behind the scenes to grab power, Pakistan has not seen a full-term government for nearly two decades. How long this coalition government — the first one between bitter political rivals such as the PPP and PML(N) — will last is anybody’s guess.

Right now an intense hatred for President Musharraf has resulted in the present camaraderie between Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif, but the return of democracy to the troubled Pakistan cannot automatically bestow haloes around the two principal players.

Today Mr Sharif might shout from rooftops about restoring Pakistan’s sacked judges but surely Pakistanis have not forgotten how, during Mr Sharif’s second stint, PML members had descended into the court of Chief Justice Sajjad Ali Shah, who was ultimately dismissed thanks to a revolt of the judges, said to be orchestrated by Mr Sharif’s younger brother Shahbaz Sharif, who is all set to become chief minister of Punjab.

This tamasha had followed several steps taken by Mr Sharif to change the Constitution of Pakistan in such a way that no president could in the future dismiss an elected prime minister.

It was clear that the brash decisions taken by Mr Sharif in his second term were a result of the huge mandate — about 90 per cent of the votes — that had brought him back to power, as Mr Zardari’s questionable acts had totally discredited the previous Bhutto regime, and landed him in prison too.

Sceptical voices

With this being the background of the two men who are now jointly going to rule Pakistan — though the prime minister will be someone else — it was not surprising to find quite a few sceptical voices on BBC’s ‘Have Your Say’ programme on Pakistan elections telecast on Sunday.

A few Pakistanis wondered if anything would change at all because back in the saddle were the same old discredited faces who had “plundered” the country during their earlier regimes. But others argued, equally forcefully, that the democratic forces in Pakistan could not be expected to deliver overnight; give them time — say, 10 or 20 years — and surely a strong democratic set-up would emerge over a period of time, throwing out the rotten apples and discovering new faces.

The problem was, they added, that the Pakistan Army had been so greedy for power that elected regimes were toppled frequently and the people of Pakistan had not been given the opportunity of rejecting corrupt and inefficient politicians and finding alternatives.

An interesting thought! But unfortunately democracy doesn’t always work that way. Or else, even in India, with its 60-year impeccable record of democracy, why are we not able to throw out many of the regional as well as national satraps who keep returning to power like bad pennies?

Anyway, my vote while watching the BBC discussion went to the woman who said: “The job of the army is to defend us outside the country”; it has no business to meddle with affairs inside the country. Hopefully, Gen Pervez Kayani was listening, and does not harbour over-reaching ambitions, as the other Pervez did.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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