The Hindu Business Line : Top IT counters make recovery

Kolkata, Feb. 25 IT stocks were up today on a relief rally. HCL Infosystems gained over 5 per cent. HCL Tech went up around 4 per cent. Wipro was up more than 4 per cent. Infosys moved up by 2.11 per cent. Satyam Computer gained 2.62 per cent. TCS and MphasiS finished marginally up.

In the past one week, top IT counters made some recovery, but the strength still amiss. “The top companies are not under-owned and re-rating exercise yet not visible,” felt Mr Arun Kejriwal of KRIS.

Mr Gul Teckchandani, an equity strategist, felt that with a relatively stable rupee against dollar now, and prospect of revenue growth of 30 per cent during the calendar year, the low debt IT blue chips are surely opportunities.

Last year, the rupee had a sharp upward movement of 12.3 per cent against dollar. This year so far, it has been flattish. In the immediate term, a sudden and sharp appreciation in the rupee is also least apprehended in the currency market circles.

Nasdaq-listed Cognizant has given a full year (till December 31, 2008) revenue growth guidance of 38 per cent, while for the current quarter it is between 6.5 and 7 per cent. For other companies, the range is between 4 and 7.5 per cent for the present quarter.

Industry insiders say there is still not much of a clarity on the possible IT spend by the US companies in the months ahead. “US market will remain most important for the revenues and margins of the Indian IT companies for next couple of years,” said an official of an IT heavyweight.

Limited impact

Currency hedging, pegging tariff to the rupee or attempts at geographical diversification can only have a limited impact on the profits, feel some analysts.

“The signs, such as recruitment figures or dramatic margin improvement, are still not visible,” said Mr Kejriwal. He felt in the short-to-medium-term or next six months, the price upside for the IT stocks is limited by around 10 per cent and the downside movement could be between 15 and 20 per cent.

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