The Hindu Business Line : Jet stream flux seen during early March

Thiruvananthapuram, Feb. 26 The sub-tropical westerly jet that heralds winter weather continues to evade the northern Indian latitudes to generate hot conditions in the plains of the northwest.

The favourable troughing pattern currently in the region is, however, not being supported in the higher levels of the atmosphere and can only mean rising air from the building heat, according to weathermen.

DIP TO SOUTH

The Ensemble Forecast System of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre of the US Navy says that the jet stream is likely to dip south to graze northern India in early March. This could send in the stray western disturbance into the country.

But moisture incursion in this manner during this time of the year is also fraught with the danger of setting off unwelcome hail storms, which could harm the prospects of the standing rabi wheat crop already wilting under heat stress in the region.

Medium term predictions by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate the extension of the footprint of the ‘low pressure’ from ascending motion of air in the northwest.

STRAY SHOWERS

Stray showers in the northeast by the moisture filtering from the jet stream while whisking past the Himalayas and dipping to the south beyond, is the only exception to this outlook. The south coastal peninsula too will witness some action from moisture flux from the immediate east-to-southeast.

An India Meteorological Department outlook said that the current meteorological analysis suggested mainly dry weather would prevail over most parts of the country during the next five days except over the parts of the Northeastern States, where light to moderate rain/thundershowers are likely.

Temperatures are likely to register a gradual increasing trend over northwest and central India till the weekend. But early March could witness more organised rain and unstable weather in the southern peninsula, as per forecasts by international models.

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