The Hindu Business Line : Westerly system to impact northwest from Tuesday

Thiruvananthapuram, March 9 The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday stated that the approaching western disturbance will feature a trough extending from Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, with its southern fringes sweeping the south Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh latitudes. The latest outlook is that the western disturbance would affect northwest and adjoining central India during four days from Tuesday. Maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal by 3-4°C over most parts of northwest and central India during the next two days.

CLOUD COVER

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees low and medium clouds massing over the northwest and west Madhya Pradesh from Wednesday. Simultaneously, easterly waves drifting in from the Bay of Bengal will send up pregnant clouds from the south peninsular tip along the country’s southeast coast.

The IMD outlook further said that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over the entire northwest region from Tuesday onwards. Rajasthan, Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining central India, west Uttar Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the northeastern States too will witness thundershower activity during this period.

In the south, rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, south Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The scattered rain and thundershower activity are likely to persist over northwest India and adjoining central India, extreme south peninsula and parts of the northeastern states up to March 15.

EXTENDED RAIN?

But the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is of the view that the disparate thundershower activity in the north and northwest will get more organised during the week from March 16 to 24, unusually for this time of this year. The southern peninsula, however, will get cleared up during this period.

The Ensemble Forecast System of the US Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) continues to suggest occasional flare-ups in thundershower activity over the southern peninsula during the week ending March 15.

It is likely to be entrenched along the southeast coast, with Chennai in north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh bearing the brunt. Accumulated rain amounts of up to 600 per cent above the weekly normal is being forecast for the coastal area during this period.

On Sunday, the western disturbance lay over the eastern parts of Jammu & Kashmir. Another western disturbance lay in wait over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir. An induced cyclonic circulation over Punjab and neighbourhood persisted.

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