The Hindu Business Line : Pakistan: The unexpected combine

With obstacles removed and Mr Nawaz Sharif persuaded by Mr Asif Ali Zardari to join the government rather than support it from outside, Pakistan should see a full-fledged democratic government in place soon, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT.

Always be prepared to expect the unexpected in politics; who would have thought that bitter rivals like the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League, led by the former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, would come together to run a coalition government in Pakistan? Some differences cropped up but have now been ironed out to show the two beaming leaders — the PPP co-chairperson, Mr Asif Ali Zardari, and Mr Sharif — promising that they will work together to ensure the return of democracy to Pakistan.

So with obstacles removed and Mr Sharif persuaded by Mr Zardari to join the government rather than support it from outside, Pakistan should see a full-fledged democratic government in place soon. Once that happens, it’ll be interesting to see what the two Houses of Pakistan — the National Assembly and the Senate — do with Mr Pervez Musharraf.

Clearly, he has friends in the Bush administration and he also knows that no Pakistani dispensation can survive, effectively tackling major challenges before it — economic, regional, and those posed by Islamist ultras in the tribal regions — without the blessings of Washington.

For a long, long time, Pakistan is going to need the aid that the Musharraf regime has been promised in return for total co-operation with the Americans and their allies in their operations in Afghanistan and on the Pak-Afghan border, as they hunt down al Qaeda operatives in the region.

The dilemma before the Zardari-Sharif duo will be to decide what is more important for them — swallowing their pride and doing an about-turn on their shrill promises of removing President Musharraf at the earliest, or walking the talk, come what may.

Another person not smiling in Pakistan is the PPP leader, Mr Makhdoom Amin Fahim — the Benazir faithful — who had been promised the prime ministership, but is now kept hanging, with there being indications that he might, after all, not get the coveted office.

Of course, Mr Zardari will not immediately go back on the promise he had made in the immediate aftermath of his wife, Benazir Bhutto’s assassination that his eye was not the prime minister post, but to continue the battle begun by his wife for returning democracy to the beleaguered nation.

Rule through remote control

Those in the know in Pakistan politics say that Mr Zardari will be the most powerful figure in the coalition government and will rule through remote control; the talk in Pakistan is that he wants to tread the path shown by Congress president, Ms Sonia Gandhi, who could have become India’s prime minister had she chosen to, but opted to rule from behind the scenes! According to a report in the Pakistani daily The News, there is still likelihood that though the new government might have a prime minister other than Mr Fahim — probably former National Assembly Speaker, Mr Yousuf Raza Gillani — for some time, ultimately Mr Zardari might himself target the post of prime minister by contesting Benazir’s seat — Larkana — to which election was postponed due to her murder.

He has himself spoken in different voices — on the day he anointed his son Bilawal as PPP’s ‘chairperson for life’, and added the magic ‘Bhutto’ title to Bilawal’s name — he had clearly said he was not interested in becoming Pakistan’s prime minister and Mr Fahim would be the PPP’s candidate for the post.

However, his later statements have sent contradictory signals. Even before the elections, in a telephonic interview to Newsweek magazine Mr Zardari had laid claim to the prime minister’s post, saying that in her will, Benazir had named him her successor. He had added, rather immodestly, “There is not one single personality (in the party), apart from me, who anybody even knows… no one else has a consensus.”

Later, of course, he said he had been misquoted, but the signal that emanated was that Mr Zardari was clearly interested in the post. Surely, it was his sullied reputation in Pakistan that must have made him uncertain about how the party’s fortunes at the hustings might be affected if it went to the polls projecting him as its prime ministerial candidate.

But now that a PPP-led coalition government is in place, and Mr Zardari has managed to persuade Mr Sharif that his party’s ministers should suffer the ignominy of being administered oath of office by President Pervez Musharraf “in the interest of democracy”, the National Assembly will have to be convened soon. One of the first priorities of the new government, as Mr Sharif has been saying repeatedly, will be to restore the judges who had been fired by General Musharraf while imposing Emergency on November 3, 2007. The deadline for this has been set at a month of government formation.

Zardari on Kashmir

But much more interesting to India than Pakistan’s internal political machinations is Mr Zardari’s statement, made a couple of days ago, that while the new government will continue its dialogue with India on resolving the Kashmir issue, he was keen that trade and economic ties between India and Pakistan be speeded up.

The clear message is that the Pakistan leadership wishes to improve economic co-operation with India and will not hold resolution of the Kashmir issue a hostage to this task. Clearly, Pakistan needs the huge Indian market.

This comes as an interesting development to somebody who has heard belligerent voices time and again in Pakistan ki sab kuch karengey… business karengey, trade karengey, lekin Kashmir ka mudda solve nahi karengey, yeh nahi chalenga (we’ll do everything — business, trade, etc — but not resolve Kashmir; this is not acceptable to us).” Apparently, times have changed; the growing scourge of terrorism, the absence of a strong democratic government to lead the country forward on economic issues and the continued undermining of Pakistan’s biggest leaders such as Benazir and Mr Sharif… in brief, a sense of hopelessness, has surely brought about this change in viewpoint.

This should, of course, be welcomed by India, because a stable Pakistan will ensure regional security. But, then, Mr Zardari’s words have to match the overt and covert agenda of the ISI; India’s biggest concern is cross-border terrorism.

If bomb blasts have been rocking Pakistani cities at regular intervals, frightening away international investors, we too have to live under the shadow of threat all the time… blasts in Hyderabad and Delhi have caused a huge concern. If the monetary, logistic and emotional support these terrorists get from our neighbours such as Pakistan and Bangladesh is cut off, they will find it impossible to carry out major attacks in India. The horrendous attacks on Indian Parliament, the Akshardham temple in Gujarat in September 2002, the serial blasts at Mumbai railway stations in July 2006, etc are still fresh in our memory.

But let’s not think that friendship with Pakistan is not important for India; it is. If there is sincerity on both sides, and a will to break free from the troubled past, this can be done for mutual benefit.

Returning to where this column started… the unexpected. The Gujarat Chief Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, welcomes Pakistan’s human rights activist Asma Jehangir in Gandhinagar and presents her a memento. Ms Jehangir’s mission — to look at the relief and rehabilitation work done for the victims of communal riots in Gujarat in 2002!

Well, surprises never cease. This particular meeting makes you wonder if Mr Modi is, after all, preparing the groundwork for playing a role in national politics.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in