The Hindu Business Line : Cyclonic whirl off peninsula may intensify

Thiruvananthapuram, March 18 India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated on Tuesday that an upper air cyclonic circulation has sprung up over the southeast Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast, which is expected to develop into a full-fledged low-pressure area over the next two days.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees the core of the ‘low’ being pushed in a north-northwesterly direction over the seas even as it grows in lateral spread. The fringes could graze the coastal Karnataka-Konkan region by Friday in a burst of localised rains.

EYES COAST

This would come about with the upper level westerlies originating from northern Africa and spanning the north and central Arabian Sea dipping south to appropriate the ‘low’ to itself and dragging it to the coast. In this manner, the system would have been wrapped into the larger trough spanning the western Pacific.

But latest ECMWF projections suggest that the moisture feed from the Arabian Sea would not be sufficient to keep the system spinning for long, weakening as soon as the base touches land. Torrential rainfall forecast earlier may not materialise over these parts.

In view of the proximity to the brewing system, the Lakshadweep Islands are likely to experience fairly widespread rain or thundershower activity during the next three days with possibility of isolated heavy falls, the IMD said.

EASTERLY WAVE

Towards the east, however, the ongoing easterly wave activity will bring scattered rain or thundershowers to the extreme south peninsula during the next two days. The rains will taper off later, though the Ensemble Forecast System of the US Navy sees the wet weather holding until March 27, punctuated by occasional blow-ups.

Meanwhile in the North, the mercury has started inching up once again to the 40-degree Celsius mark. On Monday, the belt of maximum temperature extended from Jaisalmer to central India with Nagpur and Akola marking up the fringes to the south-southeast.

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