The Hindu Business Line : The number game in aviation

Manipulating numbers does not propagate a safety culture in aviation. We need a strong head to run the regulators. The next two years will determine which way aviation is headed — towards safety or disaster.

Based on the ‘dream’ figures, airlines have been announcing grandiose plans on aircraft acquisition and offering connectivity at throwaway prices.

A. Ranganathan

In 1796, the world came across a young mathematician, Carl Friedrich Gauss. He invented modular arithmetic, greatly simplifying manipulations in number theory. Little did Gauss realise that Indian civil aviation would make use of this “manipulative number theory”.

In 2007, the Ministry of Civil Aviation announced the projected growth rate of Indian aviation. Based on the current rate of 25 per cent growth, it estimated that the number of passengers flying each year will be 400 million by the year 2020! To cater to this astronomical growth projection, it has announced several proposals for infrastructure plans.

‘Dream’ figures

Recently, another Ministry announced that more than 34 per cent of scientists in NASA are Indians. The figure turns out to be a fraction of that. Why are the numbers manipulated to inflate actual figures? Do the manipulators think that the Indian public has lost its thinking prowess?

To cater to these ‘dream’ manipulated figures, the several new airlines have been announcing grandiose plans on aircraft acquisition and connectivity across the country at throwaway prices. In less than five years, all these plans and numbers seem to be crashing down from cloud nine.

Today, all the airline shares are trading in the market at less than half of what they were at the beginning of the year. They are not likely to improve in the near future. The reason is simple. Indian aviation is like a rudderless ship.

It is drifting aimlessly because it is being run by people who are good at manipulating numbers.

Credit squeeze

The number game in airline planning is also likely to take a big hit. Oil prices have gone through the roof to $110 a barrel. More than half the airline budget is the cost of fuel and pilots.

Today, Indian companies are able to attract foreign pilots only because they pay high salaries and licensing has been made simpler for them than for Indians.

Banks have already warned the airlines of credit squeeze from next year if they do not turn the reds into black. This is not likely to happen in the near future.

In the recent interview to the Air Transport World, the Boeing representative had expressed concern about the survivability of several airlines in India.

Poor infrastructure

Five years back, greenfield airports with private participation were announced for Bangalore and Hyderabad. Global tenders were floated and the grand scheme began. Everyone — government, industry, politicians, workers unions, etc. — knew that when the new airports built at a cost of several crores are ready, the current ones at HAL and Begumpet would be shut for commercial operation. Infrastructure to connect to the new airports was to be ready in time.

Today, the same people are clamouring for the old airports to continue and the infrastructure to connect to the new airports is nowhere near ready.

In five years, we have not been able to deliver mainly because of political manipulation and inefficient administration.

Hundreds of crores of rupees of taxpayers’ money are going down the drain because of this inefficiency. Projects are planned and executed more to fill the pockets of vested interests. This is true when one looks at the operational efficiency of the airports. Take the figures given out by the Ministry on the main airports.

We talk of 35 movements (take offs and landings) in an hour and why new runways have to be built to increase the capacity to 50 by the year 2015. Hundreds of people have been displaced for these ‘white elephant’ projects.

London’s Gatwick airport operates to a capacity of over 80 movements per hour with a single runway. In 2007, the airport recorded a total of 2,66,550 air traffic movements and 35,166 million passengers. Here, we want so many additional runways for just 50 movements a day!

The UK is one country where ICAO norms are strictly followed and the system is run efficiently. If we adopt efficient systems, we can operate to double the capacity with the current runways. The Ministry, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), Air Traffic Control and the Airports Authority of India need to break from the past and get pro-active in using modern technology and methods.

Hurdles in the path of new airports

Take the hurdles being thrown in the path of the new airports. The Left parties and the politicians knew five years back that the change was imminent in 2008. What were they doing when the proposals were cleared? Even the planners of the new airports should have known that operations require approval of airspace and procedures. Why wait till the last minute and rush things through?

While making plans, one needs to take the whole picture into view, not just a limited perspective. The hurdles in the path of opening new airports are bound to send the wrong signals to infrastructure investors.

Aviation in India is overlooking another important factor, safety.

The safety factor

In a recent circular sent out by the National Transportation Safety Board in US, ‘fatigue’ is cited as one of the factors on the ‘most wanted’ list for action. Global aviation realises that fatigue is a major cause for accidents. Unfortunately, we choose to ignore this in India.

Last year, the DGCA implemented new regulations for flight and duty time for pilots. It is widely violated without any enforcement by the authorities. Shortage of qualified operating crew is going to be the order of the day. Airlines are taking more shortcuts to overcome this shortage. The understaffed DGCA can only turn a blind eye.

The low-cost-carrier concept may work in Europe and the US. Even those airlines have been found to take short-cuts in safety issues.

Recently, after a congressional enquiry in the US, Southwest Airlines was fined heavily for safety violations. The Federal Aviation Agency, which is supposed to oversee safety norms, has been found wanting in overlooking these violations.

In India, neither do we have a set of parliamentarians who act based on conviction or professionalism nor do we have a regulator that stands for safety and international norms to take compulsive corrective actions. We believe in ‘manipulative numbers’ to hoodwink the public.

Future of aviation

Our runways do not have correct equipment for friction testing. The monsoons are a mere two months away but we are oblivious to the threat. The year 2007 saw more than nine over-runs on wet runways. We were fortunate that none of them were fatal. We may not be so lucky in 2008. Is anyone accountable for these lapses?

We need a strong and straightforward head to run the regulators. Unfortunately, political patronage decides on who will run such an important agency. The next two years will determine which way Indian aviation is heading — towards safety or disaster.

We cannot progress by taking backward steps. You need to look ten years ahead with the correct perspective. Manipulating numbers does not propagate a safety culture in aviation.

(The author, an airline pilot with 19,000 hours experience, specialises in accident prevention studies.)