The Hindu Business Line : Bay trough persists as a part drifts away

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Thursday stated that the trough of ‘low’ over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal persisted, but satellite pictures showed a part of associated cloudiness having detached and drifted away.

Forecasts by some international models say the trough will stay anchored for another two days before inducing a cyclonic circulation (even a ‘low’) around the peninsular tip. Till such time, the southeast coast is forecast to experience isolated thundershowers.

Decay signs

The La Nina event is showing some signs of decay, according to latest update by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Ocean temperatures are the main manifestation of this: the surface of the equatorial Pacific has warmed slightly over the past fortnight, and the mass of cold sub-surface water in the eastern Pacific has decreased in both intensity and volume.

These observations are consistent with computer model predictions which show Pacific temperatures gradually warming over the next few seasons.

0Nevertheless, the outlooks show temperatures along much of the equatorial Pacific remaining at levels consistent with La Nina until around the end of the southern autumn.

MAIN INDICATORS

The other main indicators of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), western to central Pacific Trade Winds and Pacific cloudiness remain typical of La Nina.

When compared with two weeks ago, the seven-day ocean temperature anomaly map shows a continuance of positive anomalies next to the South American coast.

But the appearance of positive anomalies near South America is not a sign of an imminent El Nino, the BoM update said. Latest available seasonal forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said the weakening La Nina may get translated into less rainfall for east India and the peninsular tip during the impending monsoon.

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