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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, April 7 Rogue western disturbances will continue to unsettle the seasonal weather pattern in the northwest until past the middle of the month even as a reviving trough in the Bay of Bengal promised to liven up things to some extent in the extreme south peninsula.

The prevailing western disturbance has moved further east-northeast and is waning in strength, but has an induced cyclonic circulation trailing it, traced to over Punjab on Monday.

A trough ran down from Madhya Maharashtra to south Tamil Nadu through interior Karnataka. But Sunday’s trough from Chhattisgarh to Kerala has become less marked, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

On Monday, the IMD said a revived trough of low pressure over southeast Bay and adjoining south Andaman Sea persisted from overnight. Strengthened easterly to southeasterly winds from the Bay are expected to dump rain or thundershowers at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and coastal Tamil Nadu. Isolated rain or thundershowers are also likely over the rest of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Meanwhile, the Bay is shaping up for busier times if signals from the northwest Pacific and the contiguous South China Sea are any indication. Short-to-medium term forecasts suggest that a major storm may break out in the South China Sea around April 17.

The westerly-to-northwesterly track for movement of the system could take it for a direct hit over Indo-China and a remnant could slide into the Bay to stir up the warm seawaters in the basin. In any case, the parent `low’ is forecast to spring up east of the Philippine archipelago around April 14.

On Monday, the maximum temperatures were 4-6{ring}C below normal over northwest India, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa. The current meteorological analysis suggests gradual rise in maximum temperature such that they would become near normal during next four days.

An IMD forecast on Monday said that the fading western disturbance would cause rain or thundershowers at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir during next 24 hours and isolated thereafter. Isolated rain is also likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Presence of a stray cyclonic circulation over Gujarat would bring isolated thundershowers over Gujarat, Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra. Other wet places could be Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Orissa, thanks to proximity to the two favourable trough alignments running over land.

Model forecasts point to a scenario where central and eastern India could warm up faster thanks to incoming western disturbances giving the former a likely slip. The comparatively shallow systems may just roll over through Jammu and Kashmir neighbourhood and toy with the plains in the northwest before moving out of the international border.

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