The Hindu Business Line : Wheat output: Trade, officials keep fingers crossed

Khanna (Punjab), April 11 Even as arrivals of wheat have been delayed in the primary growing States of Punjab, trade and officials are having their fingers crossed on what actually could be the grain’s production in the country.

“Though there has been a slight decline in the area, it is likely to be made up through better yield. Weather conditions, especially an extended cold spell, is likely to ensure a record yield,” says Dr B. Mishra, Project Director of the Directorate of Wheat Research.

A Food Ministry official said wheat production would easily be around 75 million tonnes.

This year, the acreage under it has declined to 277.31 lakh hectares (lh) from 282.14 lh last year.

A section of the trade estimates the production at 72-73 million tonnes (mt), while another says the production would be according to the Centre’s estimated 75 mt.

“There is all likelihood of a 2-3 per cent loss due to a couple of problems the crop has faced in Punjab and Haryana this year,” says Mr Raj Sud, a trader in Khanna market.

Drought, pests

“First, some of the wheat crop has been affected due to drought. Next, there was pest attack in some areas, while rains and hailstorm last week could have affected about one per cent of the crop,” he says.

Mr Jagjit Singh, a grower from a village near Khanna, says last week’s hailstorm and rains have affected not just the crop but also its quality.

Traders in Haryana say the rains could affect the fillings in the grain and make them weightless.

However, Dr Mishra says the filling was good due to prolonged chill in the growing areas and the likelihood of weightlessness was remote.

“The crop could be between 72 mt and 73 mt given the conditions that have existed in the last couple of weeks,” said Mr Pramod Kumar, Executive Director of Sunil Agro Mills in Bangalore.

A drive through Punjab and Haryana shows wheat crops having ripened and awaiting harvest, with the grains glowing in their golden splendour. Not much crop is seen to have been felled by the rains or hailstorm.

On the trail

At Karnal, where the Directorate of Wheat Research has a big experimental farm, the crop by and large looks unaffected.

Most of the farmers aren’t ready to say how their crop is, saying only when it is harvested they would be able to provide a definitive reply.

However, a few told Business Line that they were getting a little less than last year but traders say they were exaggerating or getting ready to make claims.

An owner of a combine harvester, who has harvested in Madhya Pradesh and a few farms in Haryana, said he found most of the farms harvesting 2.3 tonnes an acre against around 2 tonnes last year.

“Farmers are waiting for the plants to dry out. Then, they would be able to harvest and we could get a definite figure. Still, it is likely that production will be 75 million tonnes,” said Mr Vinod Kapoor, former chairman of the Roller Flour Mills Federation of India.

Outlook

Government officials are confident that the crop may even top the projected 74.81 mt, though currently, they would like to come up with a conservative figure.

Dr Mishra said a team of his directorate had visited most of the wheat-growing States and had found the crop to be growing normally.

Trade sources said the crop was good in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, while it was a record one in Maharashtra and Gujarat.

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