The Hindu Business Line : Call for massive investment in human development

Young Indians (Yi) Kochi Chapter, an integral part of CII consisting of young Indian entrepreneurs, owner managers and professionals, has organised a discussion on the topic ‘One Billion People in India: Boon or Bane?’

Mr Vijay Menon, faculty member of Lal Bahadur Sastri National Academy of Administration, addressed the gathering. Mr Srikantan Suryanarayan, Yi Kochi Chapter Chair, Ms Mala Patodia, Yi Chapter Co-Chair, Mr M.S.A. Kumar, Chairman, CII-Kerala State Council, and Mr Jacob Joy, Youth Affairs Chair, Yi Kochi Chapter, spoke on the occasion.

The session discussed the United Nations population study on India, which records at roughly 1.1 billion today and is expected to touch 1.5 billion by 2025 and stabilise at around 1.7 billion by 2060. Speakers were of the view that the country will have more mouths to feed and unless the government begins planning now, the likely gap between demand and supply whether for food, water, housing or jobs can be expected to provoke conflict and violence.

Age structure of the population is also a factor that needs to be given serious thought. Around 35 per cent of India’s population today is in the 15-59 year age bracket or the prime working-age group. By 2020, 64 per cent of the population will belong to this category. This will mean that the demand for jobs will soar in the coming decade.

Positive side

On the positive side, an expansion of the working age population means that India’s population is among the few in the world that will not grey for some decades. Those of Europe and Japan are already greying; the working-age populations of the US and China are projected to shrink too in the next two decades.

By 2020, it appears that the US will be short of 17 million people of working age, China by 10 million, Japan 9 million and Russia 6 million. India in contrast will have a surplus of around 47 million. It could provide the work force that the other countries lack.

Mr Srikantan Suryanrayan mentioned that this is a window of opportunity for India. But whether this window will open up depends on the quality of our population. If the population is overwhelmingly malnourished, unhealthy, illiterate and unskilled as it is today, India will have a huge surplus ‘workforce’ that is not qualified or healthy enough to work. Unless socio-economic indicators improve dramatically, the advantage that the population boom holds out will be lost.

To find a place among developed nations, the country has to seriously address the challenge of human development, and need to have massive investments in agriculture, infrastructure, industry, R&D, housing construction and tourism to generate more job opportunities for the growing labour force.

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