The Hindu Business Line : ‘Near-normal’ monsoon may set in early

The country is set to witness another good monsoon this year, quantified to be around 99 per cent of the long period average or ‘near normal’ by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday.

The persisting but weakened La Nina in the equatorial east Pacific is seen to drive the concurrent Indian monsoon, and crucially enough, may sustain during the next three months. La Nina is the colder counterpart of the drought-maker El Nino.

According to monsoon experts, the cause of the Indian monsoon is served so long as El Nino does not rear its head.

The La Nina, now being neutralised in the equatorial east Pacific, might not turn out to be a big threat to the monsoon, it is felt.

Long-range forecasts

The Union Minister for Science and Technology, Mr Kapil Sibal, announced the first long-range forecasts in New Delhi on Wednesday, which factor in a model error of plus or minus five per cent.

The new definition of rainfall normal for the four-month season from June classifies rainfall above 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA) as ‘excess monsoon’; 104-110 per cent as ‘above normal’; 96-104 per cent ‘near normal’; 90-96 per cent ‘below normal’; and below 90 per cent as ‘deficient’ monsoon.

Significantly, a top IMD official told Business Line on condition of anonymity that available signals suggested that the southwest monsoon could break in at least a week ahead of schedule.

The normal onset over Kerala is June 1.

But this would be confirmed only in the special forecast for onset over Kerala that is scheduled for May.

Last year also, the seasonal weather system had arrived ahead of the normal and had gone on to beat the forecasts for actual rainfall amounts for the country as a whole.

Update in June

The IMD will update the forecast in June as part of the second stage forecasts.

Separate forecasts for the July rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions will also be issued.

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