The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon duty

With the monsoon less than six weeks away, governments — Central and State — must ensure adequate availability of such inputs as seeds, fertilisers and agro-chemicals.

Given the high food prices and the demand-supply fundamentals in global and domestic markets, for a government on the defensive over untamed inflation, the forecast of a ‘near-normal’ southwest monsoon should come as a whiff of fresh air. Timely onset and satisfactory progress of rainfall would surely help dampen inflationary expectations, especially relating to food as kharif — rice, coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds and cotton — supplies surge by S eptember. Two issues demand attention. One, the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecasts continue to be for the season (June to September) as whole. Growers would immensely benefit from forecasts of temporal and spatial distribution of rain, critical for farm growth. The IMD has been doing a reasonably good job of monsoon forecast since 1988. Twenty years on, it is time the department added value to its services to meet the newer needs of the economy. The government should thus liberally support the IMD for its requirement of resources — financial, human and technological.

The second point is, there is no guarantee every farmers across the country will get the full benefit of the monsoon even if there should be near-normal rainfall. There could be many a slip in the actual performance of monsoon in various regions. It has happened in the past. There should be a contingency plan to deal with weather aberrations. It is time the governments — Central and State — ensured adequate availability of such inputs as seeds, fertilisers and agro-chemicals. Given the explosive price situation, the country cannot afford a poor kharif harvest. The onset of monsoon over Kerala, usually on June 1, is less than six weeks away. In many areas, there is pre-monsoon sowing, and farmers need to be able to access inputs freely. The Agriculture Ministry should assume responsibility to co-ordinate and guide the efforts of various State governments. After the last major drought of 2002, the country has had normal monsoons for five years in succession. Yet, it failed to leverage the benefits from such bounty. The government, for instance, did little to, say, drought-proof agriculture or ensure its sustained growth.

Meanwhile, food market dynamics around the world have changed. It is a seller’s market and no more a buyer’s; and is expected to stay that way for some years. This means every effort has to be made by all the stakeholders to ensure that kharif 2008 farm output is maximised; and that at least near-self sufficiency in food production is achieved. Unfortunately, the Eleventh Plan projections do not inspire confidence. Grains output is projected to grow at less than 2.5 per cent a year and oilseeds at a paltry 4 per cent. Again, there is no guarantee that even these modest targets will be achieved. That Indian agriculture is a gamble on the monsoon is truer today than it ever was. And the socio-political consequences of a bad monsoon could be scary.

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